Heel Tough Blog: Duke Preview
The Tar Heels will travel to Duke on Saturday for the 114th meeting of the Battle for the Victory Bell. The Tar Heels will be looking to build off the first ranked win of the Bill Belichick era in this one, while Duke will be hoping to get back on track after a headscratching loss to Georgia Tech. Here’s everything you need to know heading into this rivalry matchup.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
The Tar Heels come into this game looking to generate some real momentum following what might have been the most significant win of the Bill Belichick era. The offense is better than a year ago under Bobby Petrino, but it is still far from the most feared unit in the country. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has cleaned up the accuracy issues from early in the season in the last two weeks, but he has started to turn the ball over. He’ll need to do a better job of holding onto the football in this one against a Duke team that is more than capable of limiting possessions with how much they run the ball. His pass catching group is still heavily reliant on the performances of receiver Jordan Shipp and tight end Jelani Thurman, but others are beginning to make plays. Tight end Shamar Easter has a nice showing against Notre Dame before making the biggest play of the day against Pittsburgh, so he is someone that seems to be earning trust from Edwards. The same can be said about C.J. Sadler, who has tried to get the momentum rolling after being suspended for the Clemson game. On the ground, the Tar Heels are struggling mightily. Benjamin Hall had the big game against Clemson, but has been quiet since, and Demon June and Jaylen McGill haven’t been able to provide much in their carries either. A lot of that responsibility falls on the shoulders of the Tar Heel offensive line who has been pushed around the last two weeks. The hope is that Jordan Hall’s return at left tackle could help, but that is far from a guarantee after his rough showing in the Clemson game. Even if he does return, it’s on the rest of this unit to step up and get some push in the run game so that this offense can be more balanced and salt away a game rather than putting it all on the defense. The room could also stand to be better in pass protection, where they have allowed 11 or more pressures in three straight games.
Defensively, the Tar Heels have been a team that has been able to bow up in important moments in both of their power conference wins this season and the hope is that they can recreate that again on Saturday. It all starts up front, where the team is hoping to get reinforcements back in this game. Jaylen Harvey will be back at edge rusher and Donovan Hoilette Jr. is expected to play, so the team will be fully stocked at edge rusher. The bigger concern is on the interior where Isaiah Johnson is questionable. If he can go, that means Nicco Maggio and Trey Giddens will be counted on again alongside Xavier Lewis and Leroy Jackson, who are having tremendous seasons. The hope is that this group can get after the quarterback more consistently than they have the last three games because the Tar Heel secondary is as beat up as any in college football. The team will be without Tre Miller and Kaleb Cost in this game and Greg Smith, the best player in that room so far this season, is officially questionable heading into the game. Ade Willie stepped up in the nickel after Cost’s injury and played well, but there is some concern about how the team can replace Miller and potentially Smith. Jaiden Patterson and Peyton Waters will need to play well as the other starters in this room. At linebacker, Derek McDonald and Peyton Seelmann are coming off of their cleanest games of the season, but will be tested by this Duke running game and tight end room. Jonathan Agumadu and Timir Hickman-Collins are both coming off productive reps against Pittsburgh and could factor in here as well.
On special teams, the Tar Heels still have yet to see Rece Verhoff attempt a field goal since returning, so it’s hard to gauge where he is at right now. At punter, Aeron Burrell had a rough day against Pittsburgh and needs to recover this week with Duke boasting one of the best punters in college football on the other side. The return games are in good shape with Jaden Jefferson a threat to break a kick return at any time and Trech Kekahuna providing some reliable hands in the punt game.
Duke
The Blue Devils suffered their first setback of the season last week at the hands of Georgia Tech and will look to prove they are still a serious ACC contender on Saturday. Everything for their fairly successful offense starts with running back Nate Sheppard, who is an outside Heisman candidate after his amazing start to the season. Not only is he one of the nation’s leading rushers in all major categories, but he is also heavily involved in the Duke passing game, so the Tar Heels need to find a way to limit him. The one thing that may help do that is the fact that Sheppard enters this game questionable to play with an ankle injury sustained last week against Georgia Tech. If he does play, he may be a bit compromised to say the least. His injury might put more on the shoulders of the Duke passing game that is still looking for guys to step up for quarterback Walker Eget. So far, the San Jose State transfer has done a great job of taking care of the football, but he has been very reliant on Sheppard and tight end Jeremiah Hasley. Wide receiver Jonah Burton is off to a solid start himself as well, but no one else in the room has been able to find their footing. The offensive line is one of the more sound units that the team has faced so far this season. Center Matt Craycraft, who is questionable for this game, and guard/center Bradley Smith anchor a unit that is paving the way for one of the most successful running games in the country and has allowed just one sacks and 25 total pressures in the team’s first five games.
Defensively, this is one of the more sound units that the Tar Heels will face this season. The defensive line doesn’t have the household names like a year ago, but there is plenty of productive depth and names to know, led by edge rushers Bryce Davis and Tyshon Reed Jr.. There is plenty of depth at linebacker, as well, but Nick Morris Jr. and Luke Mergott will be the starters that get the most run on Saturday. In the secondary, there is concern about Evan Smith’s availability for this game, but leading tackler Andrew Pellicciotta and lead corner Kyon Loud are going to have the rest of the unit in good shape heading in.
On special teams, punter Kade Reynoldson brings one of the strongest legs in the nation and is a weapon that can easily flip field position. The concern for the unit is at placekicker, where Cosme Salas is going to miss his second straight, leaving the duties in the hands of freshman Gavin Strange, who missed a field goal last week in Atlanta that proved to be important. At punt returner, Pellicciotta is off to a promising start and will be someone the Tar Heel coverage team is aware of, while CJ Campbell isn’t an aggressive kick returner after returning just one kick in the first five games.
Team Stats
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 23.4 (100th)
Off. PYPG: 218.2 (82nd)
Off. RYPG: 112.4 (123rd)
Off. TYPG: 330.6 (115th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 38.2% (85th)
Off. 4th Down %: 75.0% (T-11th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 68.8% (43rd)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 22.0 (T-26th)
Sacks Allowed: 11.0 (T-78th)
Def. PPG: 19.0 (T-34th)
Def. PYPG: 204.2 (64th)
Def. RYPG: 152.0 (88th)
Def. TYPG: 356.2 (79th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 43.1% (110th)
Def. 4th Down %: 31.3% (20th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 46.7% (22nd)
Tackles for A Loss: 22.0 (T-119th)
Sacks: 12.0 (T-56th)
Interceptions: 4 (T-61st)
Turnover Margin: -1 (T-77th)
Penalties Per Game: 3.8 (T-3rd)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 27.4 (2nd)
Duke
Off. PPG: 34.0 (48th)
Off. PYPG: 230.0 (70th)
Off. RYPG: 226.6 (16th)
Off. TYPG: 456.6 (28th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 47.1% (32nd)
Off. 4th Down %: 54.6% (T-67th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 65.2% (63rd)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 14.0 (7th)
Sacks Allowed: 1.0 (1st)
Def. PPG: 14.4 (12th)
Def. PYPG: 202.0 (58th)
Def. RYPG: 84.0 (11th)
Def. TYPG: 286.0 (19th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 28.3% (11th)
Def. 4th Down %: 20.0% (9th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 70.0% (114th)
Tackles for A Loss: 26.0 (T-97th)
Sacks: 11.0 (T-71st)
Interceptions: 1 (T-127th)
Turnover Margin: +1 (T-54th)
Penalties Per Game: 8.0 (T-113th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 75.2 (127th)
Keys to the Game
-Do Anything You Can to Slow Down Nate Sheppard
-Get Push Up Front on Offense
-Stay Disciplined
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (undisclosed), Ashton Blatt (undisclosed)m Keeyun Chapman (suspension), Vodney Cleveland (undisclosed), Kaleb Cost (knee), Mason Humphrey (undisclosed), Tre Miller (ankle), Viliami Moala (undisclosed), Jaxxon Warren (undisclosed), Jakob Weatherspoon (undisclosed)
QUEST- Jordan Hall (undisclosed), Isaiah Johnson (undisclosed), Greg Smith (undisclosed), Jordan Washington (undisclosed)
PROB- Donovan Hoilette Jr. (undisclosed)
Duke
OUT- Roman Fina (undisclosed), Lawrence Gardner (undisclosed), Kai Jacobowitz (undisclosed), Qeanu Johnson (undisclosed), Jamien Little (undisclosed), Reagan McCranie (undisclosed), Blake Rohrer (undisclosed), Cosme Salas (undisclosed), Elliott Schaper (undisclosed)
QUEST- Matt Craycraft (undisclosed), Nate Sheppard (ankle), Evan Smith (undisclosed)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB# 9 Billy Edwards Jr., Gr.
RB# 7 Benjamin Hall, Jr.
WR-X#14 C.J. Sadler, Fr.
WR-SL# 2 Trech Kekahuna, Jr.
WR-Z# 1 Jordan Shipp, Jr.
TE#45 Jelani Thurman, Jr.
LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Jr.
C#56 Christo Kelly, Gr.
RG#60 Cristian Alvarez, Fr.
RT#71 Jacqawn McRoy, So.
Defense
RUSH# 9 Melkart Abou Jaoude, Sr.
NT#96 Nicco Maggio, RFr.
DT#91 Leroy Jackson, So.
DT/DE #90 Xavier Lewis, So.
JACK#11 Jaylen Harvey, So.
WLB#10 Peyton Seelmann, Jr.
BCB#18 Jaiden Patterson, Jr.
BS# 1 Greg Smith, So.
FS# 7 Peyton Waters, So.
CB# 4 Jalon Thompson, Jr.
NB# 3 Ade Willie, Sr.
Special Teams
P#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
KOS#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
H#93 Jacob Horvath, Jr.
PR# 2 Trech Kekahuna, Jr.
Duke
Offense
QB# 2 Walker Eget, Post Bacc.
RB#20 Nate Sheppard, So.
WR-X# 8 Jayden Moore, So.
WR-Z#17 Jared Richardson, Post Bacc.
WR-SL# 6 Jonah Burton, Gr.
TE#85 Jeremiah Hasley, Gr.
LG#64 Jordan Larsen, Sr.
C#72 Matt Craycraft, Gr.
RG#63 Bradley Smith, So.
RT#77 Braden Miller, Gr.
Defense
END#10 Tyshon Reed Jr., Jr.
NT#44 David Anderson, Jr.
DT#95 Preston Watson, Jr.
VYPER#15 Kevin O’Connor, Jr.
MIKE# 7 Nick Morris Jr., Gr.
WILL#42 Kendall Johnson, Jr.
CB# 0 Dylan Flowers, Post Bacc.
ROVER# 8 DaShawn Stone, Jr.
FS#35 Andrew Pellicciotta, So.
CB# 1 Kyon Loud, So.
Special Teams
P#41 Kade Reynoldson, Jr.
KOS#25 Gavin Strange, Fr.
H#41 Kade Reynoldson, Jr.
KR# 8 Jayden Moore, So.
PR# 5 Javen Nicholas, Post Bacc.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM EST
Weather: 53°F, 47% chance of rain
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network
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