Heel Tough Blog: Louisville Preview
Saturday will be the first chance for the Tar Heels to get to bowl eligibility this season and a chance to pick up the most significant home win of the Bill Belichick era when they welcome Louisville to Chapel Hill. Here is everything you need to know for the Tar Heels penultimate home game of the season.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
So far under Bill Belichick, the Tar Heels have won just three games at home, one of which has come against a power conference competition. A win in this game could change all of that and it feels like the Tar Heels are playing their best football of the season right now. That is because Bobby Petrino and his offense have found a groove in these last three games and they will need to be productive again in this one against Petrino’s former team. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has put together two of his better passing performances of the season in the last two games and it feels like he and Petrino have found some nice chemistry as the season has gone along. What has also helped is the emergence of a timely running game, led by Demon June, who has picked up some important first downs the last couple of weeks. Benjamin Hall also looked good against UConn and will hope to build on that this weekend. The Tar Heel pass catchers have really benefited during this stretch, too. Jordan Shipp and Jelani Thurman are still the go-to guys that Petrino has done a great job of scheming open all season long and Trech Kekahuna has stepped up nicely as that third receiving option. The running backs have also been major factors in the receiving game each of the last two games and should continue to be involved down the stretch. The Tar Heel offensive line has held their own for the most part this season, but will need to be locked in against a Louisville pass rush that gets plenty of pressure on the quarterback. This is one of the lesser run defenses that this team has faced so far this year, though, so this group may have a chance to get some good push upfront in the run game.
Defensively, the Tar Heels got back to the bend-don’t break unit that helped the unit lead the team to some wins early in the year. The unit got three turnovers in the game and a lot that was due to a defensive line that wreaked havoc on Connecticut’s Kalieb Osborne. Melkart Abou Jaoude had his best performance since the opener, while Xavier Lewis and Leroy Jackson continued to be a steady pass rushing presence in the middle of the unit. This week will be a big test for this group against one of the best offensive lines in the conference and they have to come ready to compete. The linebacking corps is the real strength of this defense, though, with how well this room has played in the last month. Peyton Seelmann and Derek McDonald are both thriving, especially in the running game and Timir Hickman-Collins has been improving throughout the season and is coming off an outstanding performance a week ago. The secondary is the concern with this unit. Injuries have taken their toll on this room, but inconsistencies from Jaiden Patterson and Kaleb Cost have been a bigger issue. Even Greg Smith, who was one of stars of the first half of the season, hasn’t been the same since he misplayed a deep pass against Syracuse which flipped that game. Those guys will need to step up along with the rest of the room to contain one of the most explosive pass catching rooms in the country.
The special teams unit has been very sound throughout the season. Placekicker Rece Verhoff has picked up right where he left off last year and Aeron Burrell navigated some midseason struggles and a back injury to find some consistency. The return games are in trusted hands with the speedy true freshman Jaden Jefferson handling kick returns and Kekahuna returning punts.
Louisville
The Cardinals got off to a slow start to the season headlined by a head scratching loss to a struggling NC State team that dropped them to 2-3 at the time. Since then, the team has reeled off four straight wins to get themselves back in the hunt for a trip to the final ACC Championship Game. The main reason that they have been able to do that is because of their high flying, high scoring offense. Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz bursted on to the scene in the opener against Ole Miss and hasn’t really looked back since. He is an aggressive downfield passer who leads the conference in yards per attempt, but does so while taking care of the football and using his legs as well as any quarterback in the conference. He is part of one of the nation’s most dangerous rushing attacks, which is led by the duo of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, who are both averaging over 7.5 yards per carry and have found the end zone at least five times. The pass catching room doesn’t have a receiver the caliber of Malachi Toney or Umari Hatcher that the team has to take away, but there are a lot of guys who can hurt you. Tre Richardson is the go-to receiver that is probably in that second tier of receivers in the conference with Jordan Shipp because of what he does as a receiver and a jet sweep threat, while Lawayne McCoy is a dangerous deep target that is averaging 20.5 yards per catch. Receiver Treyshun Hurry and tight end Jaleel Skinner are also options in the passing game that have had productive seasons and will need to be accounted for by this Tar Heel defense. The offensive line hasn't had a great year in run blocking despite the success that the team has had on the ground, but they have done a good job of keeping the quarterback clean thanks to guys like left tackle Lance Robinson and right guard Eryx Daughtery.
Defensively, the Cardinals boast an aggressive unit that pressures the quarterback a lot, but also lets up some significant yards, mainly through the air. The defensive line is a problem when it comes to pressuring and sacking opposing quarterbacks. Headlined by edge rushers Clev Lubin and former Tar Heel Tyler Thompson, the room has four different players that have 15 or more quarterback pressures this season and is the main reason the team has produced 48.0 tackles for loss, 23.0 sacks and 191 total quarterback pressures. The linebacker room has some productive tacklers that have shined in run defense, but they have been picked on a bit in coverage. In the secondary, there are some opportunistic players, led by safety Kaleb Beasley, who has five interceptions this season, but it feels like everyone has had their moments where they have been picked on. The Tar Heels need to challenge guys like Koen Entringer and T.J. Banks who have let up the most yards and touchdowns for the team this season.
The special teams room for the Cardinals has not exactly been a perfect unit. Placekicker Carson Hilbert has been alright, but he has missed three extra points already and he has been hit or miss from 40+ yards on field goals. Niall Hayes has handled the punting and is one of the worst in the league in terms of average punt and net average, meaning the Tar Heels shouldn’t have to worry about him flipping the field in this one. The return games are what the program points to with the Brown tandem handling kick returns admirably and Jacob Voth being a dangerous punt returner that the Tar Heels will need to make sure they have covered whenever they punt the ball.
Team Stats
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 27.1 (77th)
Off. PYPG: 238.8 (55th)
Off. RYPG: 114.2 (121st)
Off. TYPG: 353.0 (99th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 46.0% (26th)
Off. 4th Down %: 76.9% (T-4th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 69.7% (T-28th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 37.0 (T-28th)
Sacks Allowed: 20.0 (T-83rd)
Def. PPG: 22.8 (T-52nd)
Def. PYPG: 227.2 (92nd)
Def. RYPG: 149.8 (77th)
Def. TYPG: 377.0 (85th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 44.1% (121st)
Def. 4th Down %: 43.8 % (T-39th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 56.7% (50th)
Tackles for A Loss: 34.0 (T-129th)
Sacks: 18.0 (T-75th)
Interceptions: 7 (T-45th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (T-73rd)
Penalties Per Game: 4.4 (9th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 34.3 (5th)
Louisville
Off. PPG: 40.8 (6th)
Off. PYPG: 260.1 (30th)
Off. RYPG: 228.0 (8th)
Off. TYPG: 488.1 (8th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 44.4% (33rd)
Off. 4th Down %: 0.0% (138th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 69.4% (T-30th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 51.0 (T-78th)
Sacks Allowed: 14.0 (T-42nd)
Def. PPG: 25.9 (80th)
Def. PYPG: 265.9 (130th)
Def. RYPG: 138.6 (63rd)
Def. TYPG: 404.4 (112th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 31.1% (16th)
Def. 4th Down %: 51.5 % (70th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 46.9% (20th)
Tackles for A Loss: 48.0 (68th)
Sacks: 23.0 (T-41st)
Interceptions: 9 (T-23rd)
Turnover Margin: +7 (T-14th)
Penalties Per Game: 7.1 (T-91st)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 72.1 (126th)
Keys to the Game
-Limit Explosive Plays
-Get Off the Field on Third and Fourth Down
-Keep the Offense Rolling
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Jonathan Agumadu (lower body), Keeyun Chapman (suspension), Vodney Cleveland (undisclosed), Jacob Horvath (undisclosed), Tre Miller (ankle), Viliami Moala (undisclosed), Joseph Mupoyi (undisclosed), Jaxxon Warren (lower body), Kymistrii Young (undisclosed)
QUEST- Emmanuel Nwaiwu (undisclosed)
PROB- Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (undisclosed), Jelani Thurman (undisclosed), Peyton Waters (undisclosed)
Louisville
OUT- Hamilton Atkins (undisclosed), Jacob Baker (undisclosed), Payton Cook (undisclosed), Bryten Close (undisclosed), Sam Dawson (undisclosed), Anwar O’neal (unlimited) Antonio Watts (undisclosed)
QUEST- Isaac Brown (undisclosed), Cason Henry (undisclosed), Demeco Kennedy (undisclosed), Lawayne McCoy (undisclosed), Myles Norwood (undisclosed)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB# 9 Billy Edwards Jr., Gr.
RB# 7 Benjamin Hall, Jr.
WR-X#17 Nyqir Helton, Fr.
WR-SL# 2 Trech Kekahuna, Jr.
WR-Z# 1 Jordan Shipp, Jr.
TE#45 Jelani Thurman, Jr.
C#56 Christo Kelly, Gr.
RG#60 Cristian Alvarez, Fr.
RT#71 Jacqawn McRoy, So.
Defense
RUSH# 9 Melkart Abou Jaoude, Sr.
NT# 0 Isaiah Johnson, Sr.
DT#91 Leroy Jackson, So.
DT/DE #90 Xavier Lewis, So.
JACK#11 Jaylen Harvey, So.
WLB#10 Peyton Seelmann, Jr.
BCB#18 Jaiden Patterson, Jr.
BS# 1 Greg Smith, So.
FS# 7 Peyton Waters, So.
CB#21 Kenton Dopson III, Fr.
NB# 2 Kaleb Cost, Sr.
Special Teams
P#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
KOS#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
H#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
PR# 2 Trech Kekahuna, Jr.
Louisville
Offense
QB# 3 Lincoln Kienholz, Jr.
RB# 1 Isaac Brown, Jr.
WR-X# 2 TreyShun Hurry, Sr.
WR-Z# 7 Lawayne McCoy, Jr.
WR-SL# 0 Tre Richardson, Sr.
TE#88 Jaleel Skinner, Sr.
LG#56 Eryx Daughtery Jr.
C#58 Evan Wibber, Sr.
RG#66 Johnnie Brown III, Sr.
RT#71 Cason Henry, Sr.
Defense
LDE#99 Jerod Smith II, Jr.
NT#95 Joshua Donald, Sr.
DT# 2 Demeco Kennedy, Jr.
RDE#50 Clev Lubvin, Sr.
MLB# 6 Stanquan Clark, Jr.
LCB#25 Brycen Scott, Jr.
SS# 10 Kaleb Beasley, Jr.
FS# 5 Koen Entringer, Sr.
RCB# 1 Jabari Mack, Sr.
Special Teams
P#39 Niall Hayes, Fr.
KO#98 Nick Keller, Sr.
H#17 Ryan Zimmerman, So.
KR# 1 Isaac Brown, Sr.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 7:00 PM EST
Weather: 43°F, 0% chance of rain
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network
Comments