Heel Tough Blog: Miami Preview
For the 12th time in program history, the Tar Heels will face the No. 1 team in the country on Saturday when they meet the Miami Hurricanes in Kenan Stadium in primetime. The team will be hoping to use last week as a rallying cry after dropping a very winnable game against Syracuse as they look to pull the biggest upset in school history and extend the streak of recent dominance over the Hurricanes. Here is everything that you need to know about the matchup as you prepare to head to Kenan or settle into the couch at home for this one.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
As we mentioned above, the team will be looking to regain some momentum after losing a game against Syracuse that the team was favored in and had control of most of the way. In order to do that, they will need the offense to be more consistent than it has been so far this season and produce outside of the opening script. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. received more vitriol from the fanbase after missing some important throws in the 4th quarter against Syracuse, but all indications are that he will remain the starter and it’s hard to be too angry with that considering he has made some important throws in the team’s victories. What would help is if the Tar Heels could run the ball consistently. The team had their issues early in the season, but seem to have found something in the last two weeks with the combination of Jaylen McGill and Demon June, who have stepped up in Benjamin Hall’s absence. Last week, both guys averaged over five yards per carry, but only took a combined 21 carries in the game. If the team is having similar success running the ball again this week, Bobby Petrino needs to rely on it more, especially if the Tar Heels are in a tight game or, possibly, in the lead. It will be tempting to throw the ball, though, because of just how good the tandem of Jordan Shipp and Jelani Thurman have been this season. Despite being atop the scouting report each week, the two are the most steady producers on the team week in and week out and they are starting to get some help from Trech Kekahuna, who has had back-to-back strong outings. True freshman Nyqir Helton, who started last week, is another name to keep an eye on. The offensive line has been better in run blocking in the last two games, but is still struggling at times in pass protection. Center Christo Kelly needs to bounce back after one of his worst games of the season, while the team hopes that left tackle Jordan Hall can play after what might have been the best performance of his Tar Heel career. This group will need to match the physicality of Miami’s defensive front, which is one of the best in the country, and find a way to keep Edwards cleaner than they did a week ago.
Defensively, the group has to rebound from what was their most disappointing performance of the year. It all starts up front where the Tar Heels were dominated a week ago by a Syracuse offensive line that came into the game struggling. The interior of the defensive line has been the strength of this room this season, but guys like Leroy Jackson, Isaiah Johnson and even Xavier Lewis have to be able to show more resistance in the run game. The team also has to do a better job of getting after the quarterback, something that starts with this edge rusher group that hasn’t been able to help out the productive Lewis. Melkart Abou Jaoude has faced more attention this year and still has the cast on his hand, but they need him to get back to being the fearsome edge rusher that he was a year ago. Opposite of him, Jaylen Harvey is coming off a game where he made a couple of nice plays in the run game, but still hasn’t found the success rushing the passer that he had in the first two games. If this group can find more success than they’ve had in the last handful of weeks, it would help out a linebacker group that has a lot on their plate right now, but is showing that they are the strength of the unit. Derek McDonald and Peyton Seelmann had some bumps in the road early in the season, but both are playing high-level football right now and are the thing keeping this defense competitive. As for the secondary, you do have guys like Greg Smith and Jaiden Patterson who have had some good moments, but they combined to allow the touchdown that flipped the game a week ago and must be better this week against what might be the best wide receiver in college football. The expected return of Kaleb Cost in the nickel could be huge after two uneven weeks for Ade Willie and Jalon Thompson will be looking to build off of his positive outing against Syracuse last week.
The special teams unit seems to have found some nice stability last week. Placekicker Rece Verhoff looks to be in a good groove after his battle for eligibility kept him out of the first few games of the season and while Aeron Burrell doesn’t have the biggest leg, he was better last week while battling the back injury. Returner duties are in solid hands thanks to true freshman Jaden Jefferson, who can break out a big kick return at any moment with his track speed, and Kekahuna, who had some nice returns a week ago.
Miami
The Hurricanes roll into Chapel Hill as one of just three teams that remain undefeated in college football this season and are fresh off a dismantling of Pittsburgh last Saturday. The offense might be the best in the country right now led by two Heisman contenders. Quarterback Darian Mensah is having the best season of any quarterback in the sport and will be a major test for this Tar Heel secondary. As good as he is when facing a four-man rush, he’s even better when blitzed, so the Tar Heels will have to be careful with how they attack him. Right now, he is seen as the current runner up in the Heisman race, while wide receiver Malachi Toney is perceived to be in third at this point. Toney will be a step up from Umari Hatcher, who they faced last week and held in check until the big 4th quarter play that sparked the comeback for the Orange. Outside of Toney, there are still plenty of talented pass catching options, such as Cooper Barkate, who followed Mensah from Duke after an All-ACC season in his lone year with the Blue Devils. Receiver Daylyn Upshaw and tight end Elija Lofton will be guys that the Tar Heels need to be aware of, as well. The offensive line is once again a strength, even if it might not be as good as what they had a year ago. Center Ryan Rodriguez and right tackle Matthew McCoy are the anchors for a group that is very physical and running football. The problem has been pass protection for this group as the current starters have given up four sacks and 44 total QB pressures this season.
Defensively, it’s a lot like it is with the offensive line: they are really good, but can’t top last season’s loaded group. This starts up front in the trenches where the Hurricanes have found some new exciting edge rushers in Marquese Lightfoot, Damon Wilson II and Armondo Blount and the unit has five different players that have at least ten pressures. None of those fives are a part of the interior defensive line, but guys like Justin Scott and Ahmad Moten are the stars that have been rotated a lot this season and should be ready for this matchup where they’ll expect them to be the more dominant group. The defensive back room has great outside corners in Bryce Fitzgerald and Ethan O’Connor, but guys like nickel Omar Thornton and safety JJ Dunnigan have had moments where teams have gone after them and found some success. Add in the fact that linebackers are being targeted, especially Mohamed Toure, who's been a big part of helping slow down the run game but has been torn up in pass coverage. Next to him will be Chase Smith, who is having a pretty solid year for himself.
Special teams is still seen as a relative strength for the Hurricanes. Placekicker Jake Weinberg has been as active as anyone so far this year and his only miss comes from 50+, so he’s pretty reliable. At punter Dylan Joyce has been fine, but has allowed a lot of returns so opportunities could be there for the Tar Heels. The return games are dangerous with a few different options at both kick and punt returner.
Team Stats
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 24.4 (T-95th)
Off. PYPG: 221.9 (76th)
Off. RYPG: 114.0 (118th)
Off. TYPG: 335.9 (113th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 40.5% (69th)
Off. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-21st)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 62.5% (T-70th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 30.0 (T-28th)
Sacks Allowed: 15.0 (T-70th)
Def. PPG: 20.9 (T-41st)
Def. PYPG: 218.0 (T-84th)
Def. RYPG: 154.7 (90th)
Def. TYPG: 372.7 (84th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 43.1% (115th)
Def. 4th Down %: 42.3% (36th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 47.8% (T-22nd)
Tackles for A Loss: 29.0 (T-126th)
Sacks: 14.0 (T-81st)
Interceptions: 5 (T-68th)
Turnover Margin: -2 (T-87th)
Penalties Per Game: 4.0 (T-4th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 31.7 (4th)
Miami
Off. PPG: 49.0 (1st)
Off. PYPG: 340.7 (4th)
Off. RYPG: 211.1 (18th)
Off. TYPG: 551.9 (1st)
Off. 3rd Down %: 54.5% (5th)
Off. 4th Down %: 28.6% (T-127th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 81.1% (7th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 19.0 (T-3rd)
Sacks Allowed: 9.0 (T-26th)
Def. PPG: 15.3 (T-11th)
Def. PYPG: 239.1 (108th)
Def. RYPG: 60.0 (1st)
Def. TYPG: 299.1 (21st)
Def. 3rd Down %: 34.0% (36th)
Def. 4th Down %: 15.4% (1st)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 35.7% (5th)
Tackles for A Loss: 35.0 (T-93rd)
Sacks: 20.0 (T-20th)
Interceptions: 4 (T-86th)
Turnover Margin: +6 (T-14th)
Penalties Per Game: 6.9 (T-83rd)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 62.9 (95th)
Keys to the Game
-Create Turnovers
-Show Some Resistance in Run Defense
-Score Touchdowns, Not Field Goals
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Jonathan Agumadu (undisclosed), Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (undisclosed), Keeyun Chapman (suspension), Vodney Cleveland (undisclosed), Tre Miller (ankle), Viliami Moala (undisclosed), Jaxxon Warren (undisclosed), Peyton Waters (undisclosed)
QUEST- Jordan Hall (undisclosed), Andrew Threatt (undisclosed)
Miami
OUT- Ja’Boree Antoine (undisclosed), CharMar Brown (undisclosed), Max Buchanan (undisclosed), Romanas Frederique Jr. (undisclosed), Luka Gilbert (undisclosed), Joshua Moore (undisclosed)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB# 9 Billy Edwards Jr., Gr.
RB# 7 Benjamin Hall, Jr.
WR-X#17 Nyqir Helton, Fr.
WR-SL# 2 Trech Kekahuna, Jr.
WR-Z# 1 Jordan Shipp, Jr.
TE#45 Jelani Thurman, Jr.
LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Jr.
C#56 Christo Kelly, Gr.
RG#60 Cristian Alvarez, Fr.
RT#71 Jacqawn McRoy, So.
Defense
RUSH# 9 Melkart Abou Jaoude, Sr.
NT# 0 Isaiah Johnson, Sr.
DT#91 Leroy Jackson, So.
DT/DE #90 Xavier Lewis, So.
JACK#11 Jaylen Harvey, So.
WLB#10 Peyton Seelmann, Jr.
BCB#18 Jaiden Patterson, Jr.
BS# 1 Greg Smith, So.
FS#16 Coleman Bryson, Sr.
CB# 4 Jalon Thompson, Jr.
NB# 2 Kaleb Cost, Sr.
Special Teams
P#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
KOS#92 Aeron Burrell, Jr.
H#93 Jacob Horvath, Jr.
PR# 2 Trech Kekahuna, Jr.
Miami
Offense
QB#10 Darian Mensah, Jr.
RB# 4 Mark Fletcher, Jr.
WR-X# 7 Daylyn Upshaw, RFr.
WR-Z#18 Cooper Barkate, Gr.
WR-SL# 1 Malachi Toney, So.
TE# 9 Elija Lofton, Jr.
LG#58 Ben Congdon, Fr.
C#76 Ryan Rodriguez, Sr.
RG#65 Seuseu Alofaituli, So.
RT#78 Matthew McCoy, Sr.
Defense
LDE#18 Armondo Blount, Jr.
LDT#99 Ahmad Moten Sr., Sr.
RDT# 5 Justin Scott, Jr.
RDE# 8 Marquise Lightfoot, Jr.
WLB# 9 Chase Smith, Sr.
MLB# 1 Mohamed Toure, Sr.
NB# 3 Bryce Fitzgerald, So.
LCB#24 Ethan O’Connor, Jr.
FS# 7 Zechariah Poyser, Jr.
RCB# 6 Xavier Lucas, Jr.
P#94 Dylan Joyce, Sr.
KO#22 Jake Weinberg, So.
H#94 Dylan Joyce, Sr.
PR# 1 Malachi Toney, So.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 7:30 PM EST
Weather: 60°F, 0% chance of rain
TV: ABC
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network
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