Heel Tough Blog: NC State Preview

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The Tar Heels’ 2025 regular season is set to come to an end on Saturday when they head to Raleigh to face their arch rivals, the NC State Wolfpack. Here is a look at everything you need to know for the matchup as the Tar Heels look to end their losing streak at four to the Wolfpack.

Team Breakdown

Tar Heels

After a nice two game win streak from the team in the middle of year, the Tar Heels have returned to Earth with two losses to in-state opponents. Now, the question becomes whether or not the team can bounce back and close the season out strong with a win and keep their very thin bowl chances alive. In order to do that, they will need to be even better offensively than they were a week ago. That starts with quarterback Gio Lopez, who might have put together his best game as a Tar Heel last week while under a ton of pressure. While last week was a successful one, they could use an even bigger day from him against a struggling passing defense in their quest to get to the 30-point mark for just the second time this year. His pass catching group, which is led by Jordan Shipp and Kobe Paysour, will have to have a big performance Saturday if the team is going to help do that. They’ll have to make some plays downfield, something they haven’t been able to do really all year, and after the catch to turn short gains into explosive plays. The passing game could use some help from the run game, which hasn’t produced much of anything since the win over Syracuse. The team still needs to use Demon June and Davion Gause as their two primary backs and they need to utilize the edges to run the football effectively because the blocking just isn’t good enough inside the tackles. It would be very helpful if that blocking was better, but it has been hard to rely on this offensive line with all of the continuity issues they have, in part because of injuries. The group’s biggest need for this game is to find a solution at left tackle between Jordan Hall and Miles McVay so that they can compete with a defensive line for NC State that will test them.

Defensively, the Tar Heels have regressed after the successful four week stretch that they had in the middle of the season. The defensive line that dominated during that stretch, has been pushed around the last couple of weeks and must recover in this game to have any chance of coming away with a win. Not only do edge rushers have to find ways to consistently win on the edges, but the interior of the line needs to get back to shedding blocks to be able to make plays at or near the line of scrimmage in the run game on early downs. As a whole, the team must also contain the quarterback better after Robby Ashford and Darian Mensah hurt them with their scrambling ability the last two weeks. At linebacker, Andrew Simpson has been steady all season long, while Khmori House has fallen off in the last two weeks. He’ll have to be better in coverage than he has been in the last two weeks or it could be a long night for the Tar Heels. The secondary got Thaddeus Dixon back last week, but the team needs him to be much better than he was last week if they are going to win. Tackling will be the most important thing for this group because the yards after the catch is the thing that has hurt the unit the most this season.

On special teams, the Tar Heels are still solid. Punter Tom Maginness is coming off a career game against Duke where he averaged 50.3 yards per punt and Rece Verhoff rebounded from having two kicks blocked against Wake. It would be nice to get something from the return game this season, but it just doesn’t feel like that is going to happen.

NC State

The Wolfpack come into the game already having clinched a bowl game after a win last week against Florida State and looking to improve their standing before bowl season. Offensively, they aren’t in nearly the rhythm that they were early in the year, but they are still a dangerous group led by their quarterback CJ Bailey, who is having a very solid season through the air and is a threat escaping the pocket like the last two quarterbacks that the Tar Heels have faced. He has done a really good job of spreading the football around, as six different receivers have at least 250 yards this season. Tight end Justin Joly will be a stiff test for the middle of this Tar Heel defense and Terrell Anderson and Wesley Grimes will test the Tar Heel corners with their big play abilities down the field. At running back, the team has maybe the best 1-2 punch in the conference in Hollywood Smothers and Jayden Scott that will test a Tar Heel run defense that has really struggled over the last two weeks. The NC State offensive line may not be as dominant as it has been in years past because of how many pressures they have allowed, but the unit is still a decent one led by left tackle Jacarrius Peak.

The NC State defense has had a rough first season under coordinator D.J. Eliot, but will be motivated to put up a strong performance in this game. The strength of the unit is the defensive line led by edge rushers Sabastian Harsh and Cian Slone, who have provided a lot of pressure but haven’t necessarily been able to finish them in sacks so far this season. That has put a lot of pressure on the secondary, which has struggled since the word go. Devon Marshall, the best member of the unit, has been hit or miss for most of the season, while everyone else has pretty consistently struggled, especially the team’s safeties. The linebackers have been a big part of the issue, as well. While Caden Fordham has shined in run defense, he has been picked on in coverage, as has fellow linebacker Kenny Soares Jr., something that the Tar Heels will hopefully be able to do on Saturday.

The NC State special teams unit has been similar to the Tar Heels in that it has been solid, but unspectacular. Caden Noonkester is the strength of the unit at punter, while kicker Kanoah Vinesett has done enough when he has been asked to in the kicking game. The return game has been incredibly unspectacular in both facets.

Team Stats

Tar Heels

Off. PPG: 19.3 (122nd)

Off. PYPG: 182.5 (112th)

Off. RYPG: 108.4 (122nd)

Off. TYPG: 290.9 (131st)

Off. 3rd Down %: 35.4% (109th)

Off. 4th Down %: 73.3% (T-6th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 50.0% (T-116th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 62.0 (T-85th)

Sacks Allowed: 18.0 (T-52nd)

Def. PPG: 22.9 (53rd)

Def. PYPG: 212.2 (58th)

Def. RYPG: 120.3 (30th)

Def. TYPG: 332.5 (36th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 41.8% (94th)

Def. 4th Down %: 71.4% (T-130th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 46.0% (11th)

Tackles for A Loss: 59.0 (T-76th)

Sacks: 30.0 (T-19th)

Interceptions: 6 (T-95th)

Turnover Margin: -2 (T-86th)

Penalties Per Game: 6.2 (T-70th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 56.5 (82nd)

NC State

Off. PPG: 29.1 (56th)

Off. PYPG: 252.0 (43rd)

Off. RYPG: 145.8 (79th)

Off. TYPG: 397.8 (60th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 40.7% (T-64th)

Off. 4th Down %: 45.0% (107th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 79.4% (4th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 65.0 (T-103rd)

Sacks Allowed: 19.0 (T-60th)

Def. PPG: 29.7 (104th)

Def. PYPG: 291.1 (136th)

Def. RYPG: 144.1 (62nd)

Def. TYPG: 435.2 (T-128th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 44.8% (123rd)

Def. 4th Down %: 47.4% (39th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 59.6% (65th)

Tackles for A Loss: 52.0 (T-107th)

Sacks: 14.0 (T-122nd)

Interceptions: 8 (T-64th)

Turnover Margin: 0 (T-68th)

Penalties Per Game: 5.5 (T-38th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 53.0 (63rd)

Keys to the Game

-Stay Disciplined

-Win the Line of Scrimmage

-Score TDs in the Redzone

Injury Report

Tar Heels

OUT- Aidan Banfield (undisclosed), Evan Bennett (undisclosed), Cort Halsey (undisclosed), Tyler Houser (undisclosed), Christo Kelly (undisclosed), Chad Lindberg (arm), Deems May (undisclosed), Chinedu Onyeago (undisclosed), Kamarion Thomas (undisclosed), Ty White (undisclosed), Laderion Williams (undisclosed)

NC State

OUT- Brody Barnhardt (undisclosed), Sean Brown (undisclosed), Isaiah Crowell (undisclosed), Sterling Dixon (undisclosed), Daemon Fagan (undisclosed), Renté Hinton (undisclosed), Jamel Johnson (undisclosed), Trent Mitchell (undisclosed), Jonathan Paylor (undisclosed), Jaren Sensabaugh (undisclosed), Kamen Smith (undisclosed), Tyler West (undisclosed)

Projected Starting Lineup

Tar Heels

Offense

QB# 7 Gio Lopez, So.

RB#12 Demon June, Fr.

WR-X# 1 Jordan Shipp, So.

WR-SL# 9 Javarius Green, RFr.

WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Sr.

TE#19 Jake Johnson, Jr.

LT#66 Jordan Hall, So.

LG#73 Will O’Steen, Sr.

C#58 Austin Blaske, Sr.

RG#52 Daniel King, Sr.

RT#55 Jakai Moore, Sr.

Defense

DE# 8 Smith Vilbert, Sr.

DT# 6 D’Antre Robinson, So.

DT#92 CJ Mims, Jr.

DE# 9 Melkart Abou-Jaoude, Jr.

WLB# 7 Khmori House, So.

MLB# 2 Andrew Simpson, Sr.

CB# 1 Thaddeus Dixon, Sr.

SS# 5 Gavin Gibson, Sr.

FS#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

CB#29 Marcus Allen, Sr.

NB#21 Kaleb Cost, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

P#96 Tom Maginness, Sr.

KOS#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

LS#42 Spencer Triplett, Sr.

H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KR#27 Jaylen McGill, Fr.

PR#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

NC State

Offense

QB#11 CJ Bailey, So.

RB# 3 Hollywood Smothers, So.

WR-X# 6 Wesley Grimes, Sr.

WR-Z# 9 Terrell Anderson, So.

WR-SL# 8 Keenan Jackson, So.

TE# 7 Justin Joly, Jr.

LT#65 Jacarrius Peak, Jr.

LG#75 Anthony Carter Jr., Gr.

C#74 Jalen Grant, Gr.

RG#72 Spike Sowells Jr., Fr.

RT#54 Teague Anderson, Jr.

Defense

DE#54 Sabastian Harsh, Sr.

NT#44 Brandon Cleveland, Sr.

DT#13 Travali Price, Sr.

JACK# 8 Cian Slone, Sr.

WLB#33 Kenny Soares Jr., Jr.

MLB# 1 Caden Fordham, Sr.

LCB# 6 Devon Marshall, Sr.

SS#19 Tristan Teasdell, Fr.

FS#26 Assad Brown Jr., RFr.

RCB# 7 Brian Nelson II, So.

NB#22 Jackson Vick, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#94 Kanoah Vinesett, Jr.

P#98 Caden Noonkester, Sr.

KOS#91 Nick Konieczynski, RFr.

LS#95 Jake Mann, Sr.

H#98 Caden Noonkester, Sr.

KR#31 Coleson Fields, So.

PR# 9 Terrell Anderson, So.

Game Information

Kickoff Time: 7:30 PM ET

TV: ACC Network

Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network