Heel Tough Blog: Virginia Preview

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The Tar Heels return to Kenan Stadium on Saturday afternoon still searching for the first win of the Bill Belichick era over a power conference opponent as they take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the latest rendition of the South’s Oldest Rivalry. Here’s a look at everything that you need to know for a game that could go a long way in getting this season turned around.

Team Breakdowns

Tar Heels

The Tar Heels are coming off their best performance of the season against a power conference opponent and will be looking to build on the progress they made on both sides of the ball. On offense, it starts at quarterback with Gio Lopez, who had arguably his best game of the season against Cal. In order to take that next step, Lopez has to be more consistent in the intermediate and deep passing games which would give the Tar Heels an explosive ability that they haven’t had all season long. It’s up to the receiving corps to find more consistency in their game as well. The hope is that what you saw from Kobe Paysour carries over and that Jordan Shipp can bounce back from a rough performance against Cal to be guys that the team can rely on. Jake Johnson continuing to be a threat at tight end helps, but even his production is hit or miss. The running back room feels like the strength of this team right now, but they have been slowed down by poor run blocking from the team’s offensive line. Demon June Jr. has been the main producer in the backfield so far this year, but we saw Benjamin Hall and Davion Gause find some nice success in the game against Cal that can hopefully carry over this weekend. The offensive line not only has struggled in run blocking situations, it has become a major liability in pass protection, as well. Starting tackles Austin Blaske and Jakai Moore simply need to be better at giving Lopez time to throw, as does Will O’Steen who has really struggled in his first two games as a starter.

Defensively, the hopes of improving start on the defensive line. The interior of the unit continues to make plays in the running game, but it would be nice to create some more negative plays than the unit has this season. On the edge, the team is hoping that they have found something in Tyler Thompson because they are in desperate need of some consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Hopefully he’ll play more on the obvious passing downs because Melkart Abou-Jaoude and Smith Vilbert simply haven’t been getting it done this season. At linebacker, Andrew Simpson and Khmori House have been solid and are the strength of a defense that has had tackling problems all year long. They’ll be tested in this game by the rushing attack that Virginia possesses, which is averaging 203.9 yards per game on the ground. The secondary has been picked apart a lot this year and remains without its best player. Marcus Allen has recovered from the season-opening disaster but remains inconsistent, while Jaiden Patterson is learning on the fly. At safety, the team is still searching for the best combinations with Will Hardy and Gavin Gibson struggling at times to tackle. Hopefully, this unit can find a way to limit this passing game and the yards after catch that have killed this team throughout the season.

On special teams, the Tar Heels have been pretty solid. Placekicker Rece Verhoff hasn’t been needed a lot this season, but when he has been, he’s stepped up. At punter, Tom Maginness has had a roller coaster season, but has the best net average of his career so far. The return game is in capable, but unspectacular, hands. True freshman Jaylen McGill returned kicks in Berkeley and showed some promise and Will Hardy has handled the punt return role efficiently so far this year.

Virginia

Tony Elliott entered this season on the hot seat, but after a 6-1 start, he has his team in the thick of the ACC race. A big part of that is what the team is doing on the offensive side of the ball. It starts with quarterback Chandler Morris, who has been a tremendous addition for this team and is playing at a similar level to Bryce Perkins in 2019. Alongside of him is running back J’Mari Taylor, who has come up from NC Central and been one of the better running backs in the conference this season. Behind him, there are three other backs who are capable of helping carry the load for a Cavaliers rushing offense that is one of the best in the country. At wide receiver, the team will be without the dynamic Cam Ross for this game, but they will still have Trell Harris and Jahmal Edrine, who are having strong seasons so far. Dakota Twitty will be absent at the tight end position, but red zone threat Sage Ennis is a threat that the team will have to account for. The offensive line has been really strong in run blocking situations led by the guards Drake Metcalf and Noah Josey, but they have let up some pressure on the quarterback throughout the season despite being credited with just one sack allowed so far this season.

Defensively, Virginia has been rather average but they do have a solid run defense. Up front, the team has rotated a lot, but they have two edge rushers, Mitchell Melton and Daniel Rickert, who have emerged and provided some consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks week in and week out. At linebacker, Kam Robinson has returned from injury and looks good alongside James Jackson, who has had a solid start to the season as well. The secondary is the area of weakness for this unit, but still has some guys that are having productive seasons. Devin Neal is a weapon at safety that can do it all defensively while nickel corner Ja’Son Prevard has pulled down three interceptions so far this year. Meanwhile, corners Donovan Platt and Jordan Robinson have been hit and miss in coverage and will hopefully be something that the Tar Heels can take advantage of in this matchup.

This Virginia special teams unit might be one of the best in the country. The unit contains one of the more utilized placekickers in the country in Will Bettridge and one of the best all around punters in Daniel Sparks. Cam Ross’s injury hurts because he is one of the nation’s most dynamic return men, but Kameron Courtney has some nice potential as a returner.

Team Stats

Tar Heels

Off. PPG: 18.7 (124th)

Off. PYPG: 162.5 (122nd)

Off. RYPG: 105.2 (126th)

Off. TYPG: 267.7 (133rd)

Off. 3rd Down %: 32.4% (124th)

Off. 4th Down %: 70.0% (T-17th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 56.3% (101st)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 33.0 (T-47th)

Sacks Allowed: 8.0 (T-23rd)

Def. PPG: 25.0 (74th)

Def. PYPG: 240.8 (97th)

Def. RYPG: 119.2 (36th)

Def. TYPG: 360.0 (64th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 41.5% (94th)

Def. 4th Down %: 73.3% (130th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 39.1% (7th)

Tackles for A Loss: 30.0 (T-110th)

Sacks: 8.0 (T-122nd)

Interceptions: 4 (T-77th)

Turnover Margin: -2 (T-91st)

Penalties Per Game: 4.8 (24th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 50.2 (48th)

Virginia

Off. PPG: 40.0 (9th)

Off. PYPG: 258.4 (46th)

Off. RYPG: 203.9 (26th)

Off. TYPG: 462.3 (20th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 51.4% (15th)

Off. 4th Down %: 56.3% (T-69th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 66.7% (T-51st)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 28.0 (T-18th)

Sacks Allowed: 5.0 (T-7th)

Def. PPG: 23.3 (T-59th)

Def. PYPG: 213.9 (87th)

Def. RYPG: 120.9 (38th)

Def. TYPG: 352.7 (55th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 28.3% (9th)

Def. 4th Down %: 60.0% (T-86th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 76.2% (T-130th)

Tackles for A Loss: 36.0 (T-84th)

Sacks: 17.0 (T-32nd)

Interceptions: 6 (T-39th)

Turnover Margin: +6 (T-14th)

Penalties Per Game: 5.7 (T-43rd)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 45.4 (36th)

Keys to the Game

-Take Care of the Football

-Protect Gio Lopez

-Limit the Cavaliers Passing Game

Injury Report

Tar Heels

OUT- Guytano Bartolomeo (undisclosed), Jake Bauer (undisclosed), Thaddeus Dixon (undisclosed), Cort Halsey (undisclosed), Tyler Houser (undisclosed), Deems May (undisclosed), Chinedu Onyeagoro (undisclosed), Peter Pesansky (undisclosed), Kamarion Thomas (undisclosed), Laderion Williams (undisclosed)

QUEST- Christo Kelly (undisclosed)

Virginia

OUT- Xavier Brown (undisclosed), Kevon Gray (undisclosed), Andre Greene Jr. (undisclosed), Jam Jackson (undisclosed), Armstrong Jones (undisclosed), Trevor Ladd (undisclosed), Davis Lane Jr. (undisclosed), Monroe Mills (undisclosed), Ja’Maric Moss (undisclosed), Cam Ross (undisclosed), Tyler Simmons (undisclosed), Makilan Thomas (undisclosed), Dakota Twitty  (undisclosed), Grady Brosterhous (undisclosed), Dre Walker (undisclosed), Triston Ward (undisclosed), Kevin Wigenton II (undisclosed)

PROB- McKale Boley (undisclosed), John Rogers (undisclosed)

Projected Starting Lineup

Tar Heels

Offense

QB# 7 Gio Lopez, So.

RB#35 Demon June, Fr.

WR-X# 1 Jordan Shipp, So.

WR-SL# 9 Javarius Green, RFr.

WR-Z# 3 Chris Culliver, Jr.

TE#19 Jake Johnson, Jr.

LT#58 Austin Blaske, Sr.

LG#73 Will O’Steen, Sr.

C#69 Chad Lindberg, Sr.

RG#52 Daniel King, Sr.

RT#55 Jakai Moore, Sr.

Defense

DE# 8 Smith Vilbert, Sr.

DT# 6 D’Antre Robinson, So.

DT#92 CJ Mims, Jr.

DE# 9 Melkart Abu-Jaoude, Jr.

WLB# 7 Khmori House, So.

MLB# 2 Andrew Simpson, Sr.

CB#18 Jaiden Patterson, So.

SS# 5 Gavin Gibson, Sr.

FS#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

CB#29 Marcus Allen, Sr.

NB#21 Kaleb Cost, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

P#96 Tom Maginness, Sr.

KOS#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

LS#42 Spencer Triplett, Sr.

H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KR#27 Jaylen McGill, Fr.

PR#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

Virginia

Offense

QB# 4 Chandler Morris, Gr.

RB# 3 J’Mari Taylor, Gr.

WR-X# 7 Jahmal Edrine, Sr.

WR-Z#11 Trell Harris, Jr.

WR-SL# 5 Kameron Courtney, So.

TE# 0 Sage Ennis, Gr.

LT#52 McKale Boley, Sr.

LG#77 Noah Josey, Sr.

C#76 Brady Wilson, Gr.

RG#60 Drake Metcalf, Gr.

RT#68 Jack Witmer, Sr.

Defense

DE#14 Fisher Camac, Jr.

NT#90 Jahmeer Carter, Gr.

DT#91 Jason Hammond, So.

DE#17 Mitchell Melton, Gr.

WLB# 1 James Jackson, Sr.

MLB# 5 Kam Robinson, Jr.

LCB#28 Donavan Platt, Sr.

SS#27 Devin Neal, Gr.

FS#30 Ethan Minter, RFr.

RCB# 9 Jordan Robinson, Gr.

NB#10 Ja’Son Prevard, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#41 Will Bettridge, Sr.

P#38 Daniel Sparks, Gr.

KOS#38 Daniel Sparks, Gr.

LS#69 Bryce Robinson, Gr.

H#38 Daniel Sparks, Gr.

KR# 5 Kameron Courtney, So.

PR# 5 Kameron Courtney, So.

Game Information

Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM ET

Weather: 58℉, 0% chance of rain, 5 mph NE

TV: ACC Network

Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network