Heel Tough Blog: Duke Preview

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“Beat Duke”. According to Tar Heel head coach Bill Belichick, those were his first words as a child and on Saturday afternoon he will have a chance to accomplish that for the first time as a college head coach. The Tar Heels will also be looking to avenge a heartbreaking loss that they suffered at the hands of the Blue Devils last year and get the Victory Bell back after losing it for the first time in five years a year ago. Here is a look at everything that you need to know for this weekend’s contest that will come on Senior Day in Chapel Hill.

Team Breakdowns

Tar Heels

The Tar Heels not only want to win this one to get the Victory Bell back in their possession, but to keep their hopes of making a bowl game in Bill Belichick’s first season alive. In order to do that, Freddie Kitchens offense will have to be better than it has been in the first ten games of the season and that starts with quarterback Gio Lopez. While he has improved from the start of the season, he is still missing important throws and will have to start hitting those in these next two weeks if the team is going to be heading to the a bowl game. Unfortunately, he has not gotten any help from his running game, which has been a complete non-factor at times this season, including the last two weeks. Guys like Demon June and Davion Gause have had moments where they have looked good, but because the team rotates so much at the position, no one is able to gain momentum to make their production consistent. Their production has been limited as well by the rough play up front from an offensive line that hasn’t had much continuity itself. The group has been solid in pass protection based off the analytics, but they simply have not been good in run blocking situations this year. It will be up to everyone to step up in these final two games of the season, starting with a guy like Austin Blaske, who is anchoring the line from the center position. The pass catching unit has found two consistent contributors in Jordan Shipp and Kobe Paysour, but they need more continuity in the slot. Jake Johnson had a good game last weekend and the hope is that he can build on it this week to give the team a presence out of the tight end spot.

Defensively, the team will hope to bounce back from a tough outing against Wake Forest where they were torn apart on the ground. The unit will get some reinforcement this week with the return of Thaddeus Dixon to the lineup. The defensive back unit has had moments where they have looked good without him, but they are an inconsistent group that will benefit from the return of Dixon. The linebackers need a bounce back performance after a poor showing in Winston-Salem. The good news is that we have seen good football for the most part from this group this season, so Andrew Simpson and Khmori House should be back to their normal form in this game. The defensive line is the key to success on this side of the football, though. After being pushed around a week ago, the unit will be looking to bounce back by getting more push across the board, but especially on the edge with Melkart Abou-Jaoude and Tyler Thompson. They were both non-factors a week ago, but should have a chance to bounce back this week against a pass-heavy offense. If this unit can return to its form from the previous three weeks, the Tar Heels will have a chance to slow down this vaunted Duke offense.

The special teams unit also needs to respond after a disastrous showing against Wake Forest where they saw two kicks get blocked. Rece Verhoff has been fairly reliable outside of last week, which wasn’t all on him, and punter Tom Maginness is having a career year. The return games aren’t as explosive as some of the ones that we have seen in the past.

Duke

The Blue Devils surprisingly enter this game still needing a win to get to bowl eligibility one week removed from being one of the mathematical favorites to make the ACC Championship Game. The team boasts one of the better offenses in the conference this season and it all starts at the quarterback position. Darian Mensah is the ACC’s leader in completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns and has just four interceptions to go along with it. He’ll use a loaded wide receiving corps that features names like Cooper Barkate, Que’Sean Brown and Sahmir Hagans to be able to move the ball down the field, meaning the entire defensive backfield needs to be on alert in this game. The run game hasn’t needed to produce that much this season, but Nate Sheppard is a legitimate back that is averaging a healthy amount of yards per carry, as is backup Anderson Castle. The offensive line is the weakest part of this unit, especially in pass protection, where every single member of the unit has allowed double-digit tackles and at least one sack. The left side of the unit is the area that the Tar Heels will be able to attack the most.

Defensively, the Blue Devils have been one of the bigger disappointments in the conference. The group is still effective up front but they have been hit and miss at times. Vincent Anthony Jr., Wesley Williams and Aaron Hall are all guys who can create havoc plays at just about anytime, but just haven’t been consistent this season. At linebacker, Tre Freeman and Luke Mergott have been solid, but there is a chance that Freeman won’t play. The defensive back is the unit that has seen the most struggles, especially without Terry Moore, a preseason All-ACC member who won’t play again this week. Corner Chandler Rivers, another preseason All-ACC member, hasn’t been as good as expected this year, but is someone that can still make plays if the Tar Heels aren’t careful.

Special teams is one of the best in the ACC. Placekicker Todd Pelino might be the weakest piece of this unit, but he is still fairly reliable and punter Kade Reynoldson is one of the top punters in the conference. Both return games with both Sahmir Hagans and Sean Brown having returned one to the house in their respective duties.

Team Stats

Tar Heels

Off. PPG: 18.7 (123rd)

Off. PYPG: 180.3 (113th)

Off. RYPG: 109.2 (122nd)

Off. TYPG: 289.5 (131st)

Off. 3rd Down %: 32.8% (122nd)

Off. 4th Down %: 78.6% (T-4th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 44.8% (T-128th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 57.0 (T-83rd)

Sacks Allowed: 15.0 (T-34th)

Def. PPG: 22.0 (T-42nd)

Def. PYPG: 215.9 (62nd)

Def. RYPG: 114.6 (26th)

Def. TYPG: 330.5 (37th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 42.0% (97th)

Def. 4th Down %: 68.2% (T-123rd)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 41.9% (7th)

Tackles for A Loss: 54.0 (T-79th)

Sacks: 29.0 (T-15th)

Interceptions: 6 (T-87th)

Turnover Margin: -2 (T-89th)

Penalties Per Game: 5.6 (T-43rd)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 51.9 (56th)

Duke

Off. PPG: 33.4 (31st)

Off. PYPG: 302.9 (8th)

Off. RYPG: 129.8 (100th)

Off. TYPG: 432.7 (T-29th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 39.7% (70th)

Off. 4th Down %: 73.9 (10th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 66.7% (T-40th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 49.0 (T-45th)

Sacks Allowed: 22.0 (T-88th)

Def. PPG: 29.6 (T-101st)

Def. PYPG: 273.8 (130th)

Def. RYPG: 146.5 (T-65th)

Def. TYPG: 420.3 (119th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 44.4% (121st)

Def. 4th Down %: 60.0% (T-98th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 69.1% (117th)

Tackles for A Loss: 73.0 (T-9th)

Sacks: 20.0 (T-72nd)

Interceptions: 10 (T-33rd)

Turnover Margin: +3 (T-36th)

Penalties Per Game: 6.8 (T-94th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 66.9 (123rd)

Keys to the Game

-Bring the Right Mindset

-Win the Line of Scrimmage

-Create Turnovers

Injury Report

Tar Heels

OUT- Aidan Banfield (undisclosed), Evan Bennett (undisclosed), Cort Halsey (undisclosed), Tyler Houser (undisclosed), Christo Kelly (undisclosed), Chad Lindberg (arm), Henry Martello (undisclosed), Chinedu Onyeagoro (undisclosed), Peter Pesansky (undisclosed), Jason Robinson Jr. (undisclosed), Kamarion Thomas (undisclosed), Laderion Williams (undisclosed)

QUEST- Connor Cox (undisclosed)

Duke

OUT- Jamin Brown (undisclosed), Memorable Factor (undisclosed), Vontae Floyd (undisclosed), Nathan Kutufaris (undisclosed), Terry Moore (undisclosed), Nick Morris Jr. (undisclosed), Micah Sahakian (undisclosed), Elliott Schaper (undisclosed), Evan Scott (undisclosed)

QUEST- Andrel Anthony (undisclosed), Landan Callahan (undisclosed), Tre Freeman (undisclosed)

Projected Starting Lineup

Tar Heels

Offense

QB# 7 Gio Lopez, So.

RB#12 Demon June, Fr.

WR-X# 1 Jordan Shipp, So.

WR-SL# 9 Javarius Green, RFr.

WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Sr.

TE#19 Jake Johnson, Jr.

LT#66 Jordan Hall, So.

LG#73 Will O’Steen, Sr.

C#58 Austin Blaske, Sr.

RG#52 Daniel King, Sr.

RT#55 Jakai Moore, Sr.

Defense

DE# 8 Smith Vilbert, Sr.

DT# 6 D’Antre Robinson, So.

DT#92 CJ Mims, Jr.

DE# 9 Melkart Abou-Jaoude, Jr.

WLB# 7 Khmori House, So.

MLB# 2 Andrew Simpson, Sr.

CB# 1 Thaddeus Dixon, Sr.

SS# 5 Gavin Gibson, Sr.

FS#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

CB#29 Marcus Allen, Sr.

NB#21 Kaleb Cost, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

P#96 Tom Maginness, Sr.

KOS#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

LS#42 Spencer Triplett, Sr.

H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KR#27 Jaylen McGill, Fr.

PR#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

Duke

Offense

QB#10 Darian Mensah, So.

RB#20 Nate Sheppard, Fr.

WR-X# 2 Sahmir Hagans, Sr.

WR-Z#18 Cooper Barkate, Gr.

WR-SL# 7 Que’Sean Brown, So.

TE#85 Jeremiah Hasley, Jr.

LT#75 Bruno Fina, Gr.

LG#64 Jordan Larsen, Jr.

C#72 Matt Craycraft, Jr.

RG#77 Justin Pickett, Sr.

RT#53 Brian Parker II, Jr.

Defense

DE#97 Wesley Williams, Jr.

NT#99 Aaron Hall, Gr.

DT# 4 Josiah Green, Gr.

VYPER# 7 Vincent Anthony Jr., Sr.

WLB#12 Tre Freeman, Sr.

MLB#34 Luke Mergott, So.

STAR# 2 Jaiden Francois, Gr.

LCB#5 Kimari Robinson, So.

SS# 8 DaShawn Stone, So.

FS# 3 Caleb Weaver, Gr.

RCB# 0 Chandler Rivers, Sr.

Special Teams

PK#29 Todd Pelino, Sr.

P#41 Kade Reynoldson, So.

KOS#29 Todd Pelino, Sr.

LS#57 Curtis Cooper, Gr.

H#41 Kade Reynoldson, So.

KR# 2 Sahmir Hagans, Sr.

PR# 7 Que’Sean Brown, So.

Game Information

Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM ET

TV: ACC Network

Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network