Heel Tough Blog: TCU Preview
- Anthony Pagnotta
- 15 minutes ago
- 8 min read
The Tar Heels get ready to kick off their 2025 season on Monday night in Kenan Stadium as they look to get the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill off to a flying start. In order to do that, the team will have to take down the TCU Horned Frogs, a team that is expected to be a contender in the Big 12 this season after finishing last year strong. Here’s everything to know heading into the nationally televised matchup that will have the eyes of the football on it.
Team Breakdowns
Tar Heels
Times are different in Chapel Hill with the greatest coach in the history of the sport roaming the sidelines and the team, which is comprised of 70+ new players, looks to make a statement out of the gate against a tough TCU team. On offense, Freddie Kitchens will be calling plays after being retained by Belichick this offseason and the expectation is that this will be a modern pro style offense that will be able to mold itself week to week depending on the team that lines up across from them. Everything starts with quarterback Gio Lopez, who transferred over from South Alabama and looks to build on a breakout redshirt freshman in Chapel Hill. He’ll be aided by a rushing game that is looking to replace the production left behind by Omarion Hampton, but has some pretty good pieces led by sophomore Davion Gause. Fellow sophomore Benjamin Hall has been making a push for reps this preseason and could also receive some important carries on Monday night. At receiver, there is little game experience, but plenty of talent. Kobe Paysour is back and will play a big role for the team again, while Jordan Shipp looks poised for a breakout season. In the slot, Aziah Johnson will look to become a reliable option for Lopez and the hope is that someone can emerge at the tight end spot early in the season to become a safety valve. The offensive line is the biggest question mark, though, heading into this game as they navigate some injuries and a starting group that has shifted a lot in the last month. Veteran offensive guard Austin Blaske will miss at least the first four games, while Holy Cross transfer center Christo Kelly, who had taken on a leadership role prior to his injury, is questionable. If he can’t go, the team will be forced to start Chad Lindberg at center, who would be making his first start at the position in his career. At the tackle spots, the expected starters are true freshman summer enrollee Eidan Buchanan and spring portal addition Jakai Moore, guys that were hard to imagine as starters as recently as a couple weeks ago.
On defense, the team is heavily relying on the portal additions to carry them under new defensive coordinator Stephen Belichick, who followed his father to Chapel Hill after a year at Washington where he drastically improved that unit. It all starts up front where the four starters are all transfers and will be relied upon heavily, especially early in the season, as the team looks to develop more depth. Defensive ends Pryce Yates and Smith Vilbert have received some positive reviews coming out of camp, while D’Antre Robinson and CJ Mims are seen as more of a question mark in the middle. At linebacker, Andrew Simpson comes over from Boise State after a productive career at the G5 level and will hope to fill the shoes that Amare Campbell left vacant after transferring in the spring, while Khmori House and Mikai Gbayor will likely split time at the other spot. The defensive backfield is the strength of the unit, led by the cornerback position where Washington transfer Thaddeus Dixon and holdover Marcus Allen form one of the better tandems in the ACC. In the nickel, Gavin Gibson comes over from East Carolina to help provide resistance in coverage, while Will Hardy looks poised to take a big step this season in his third defensive scheme of his career. Figuring out the spot opposite of him will be important, but Kaleb Cost looks like he is going slot in there. Let’s just hope this experiment goes a little better for him than last year did in the nickel.
Special teams is a bit of a question mark heading into the season, but there are some promising pieces in the room for new special teams coordinator Mike Priefer. Kick returner is in great hands with Chris Culliver’s return, while the punt returner spot will be handled by Will Hardy, who is a very safe option. At kicker, the team brought in Rece Verhoff from Marshall to handle the kicking duties and he seems to be fairly reliable. Punter Tom Maginness is back in the starting role this season, but sorely needs to improve this season and become a weapon this team can rely on.
TCU
The Horned Frogs are looking to put themselves back into contention in the Big 12 under Sonny Dykes and this year might just be that season. Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles will have one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks running his offense in the form of Josh Hoover. Last year, Hoover set a school record for passing yards with 3,949 yards and posted a 27-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio while helping lead the No. 8 passing offense in the country. He will have his second-leading receiver back in the form of Eric McAlister, who averaged 19.5 yards per catch last year, but will look to transfers for help at the other two receiver spots after two very productive members of the room left this offseason. D’Andre Rogers does return at tight end and will be counted on to give the team more this season. At running back, Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne will be hoping to improve a run game that ranked out of the top 100 a year ago when they ran for just 113.9 yards per game. The offensive line returns three of their five starters from last season’s group that was really strong in pass protection but needs to improve in run blocking situations. The unit will be anchored by the very steady Carson Bruno at guard but will need more from Ben Taylor-Whitfield at tackle after a rough 2024.
Defensively, the team will be in the second year under coordinator Andy Avalos and will be looking to repeat what they did last year as one of the best pass defenses in the country. It begins up front where Devean Deal is back after recording 10.0 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks a year ago, as is freshman All-American Zach Chapman. The team will have to overcome the loss of Nana Osafo-Mensah at defensive tackle, but the team is hoping that Markis Deal can take the next step there. At linebacker, the team does lose leading tackler Johnny Hodges, but does return Namdi Obiazor and Kaleb Elarms-Orr. That duo along with that defensive line will be looking to improve a run defense that allowed 160.5 yards per game on the ground a year ago. In the secondary, do-it-all safety Bud Clark is back once again to lead the unit and he is joined by fellow safety Jamel Johnson as a returning starter. The team will have to replace all three corners from a pass defense that allowed just 185.2 yards per game a year ago.
Special teams is a bit of a question mark for the Horned Frogs heading into this season. Punter Ethan Craw is a steady punter who averaged 42.4 yards per punt and allowed just 42 yards on six returns a year ago. At kicker, Kyle Lemmerman is looking to be most consistent after finishing just 15 of 22 on field goals last year. In the return game, Major Everhart looks to provide a spark in the kick return game while Joseph Manjack IV will hope to fill the shoes left behind by John Paul Richardson.
Team Stats (2024 Stats)
Tar Heels
Off. PPG: 30.9 (T-43rd)
Off. PYPG: 224.4 (72nd)
Off. RYPG: 182.3 (38th)
Off. TYPG: 406.7 (48th)
Off. 3rd Down %: 37.5% (94th)
Off. 4th Down %: 48.2% (T-87th)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 64.4% (50th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 84.0 (T-114th)
Sacks Allowed: 33.0 (T-104th)
Def. PPG: 28.1 (89th)
Def. PYPG: 226.3 (80th)
Def. RYPG: 149.5 (T-66th)
Def. TYPG: 375.8 (72nd)
Def. 3rd Down %: 36.2% (38th)
Def. 4th Down %: 52.6% (T-66th)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 58.8% (65th)
Tackles for A Loss: 78.0 (45th)
Sacks: 41.0 (T-10th)
Interceptions: 9 (T-84th)
Turnover Margin: -2 (T-71st)
Penalties Per Game: 7.5 (T-118th)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 64.0 (T-114th)
TCU
Off. PPG: 33.5 (T-23rd)
Off. PYPG: 312.9 (8th)
Off. RYPG: 113.9 (T-113th)
Off. TYPG: 426.8 (T-31st)
Off. 3rd Down %: 43.4% (37th)
Off. 4th Down %: 78.3% (3rd)
Off. Red Zone TD%: 73.7% (10th)
Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 58.0 (T-21st)
Sacks Allowed: 16.0 (T-20th)
Def. PPG: 24.6 (T-62nd)
Def. PYPG: 185.2 (23rd)
Def. RYPG: 160.5 (83rd)
Def. TYPG: 345.6 (45th)
Def. 3rd Down %: 43.7% (104th)
Def. 4th Down %: 52.0% (T-63rd)
Def. Red Zone TD%: 63.4% (89th)
Tackles for A Loss: 65.0 (T-88th)
Sacks: 26.0 (T-59th)
Interceptions: 10 (T-70th)
Turnover Margin: -6 (T-103rd)
Penalties Per Game: 5.6 (T-53rd)
Penalty Yards Per Game: 53.2 (T-79th)
Keys to the Game
Run the Ball Early and Often
Run defense was the one area of weakness for TCU’s defense last season and the Tar Heels need to be able to run the football in this game. This is going to be the way to settle your transfer quarterback into the game and the hope is that there will be a steady diet of designed run plays, including with Lopez, out of the gate.
Limit the Mistakes
The main two mistakes we’re focused on here are penalties and turnovers. The penalties have been a concern for years for the team, but the hope is that this staff will be able to curb this, especially in this game where they face a formidable group on both sides of the ball. Turnover-wise, the team just needs to value the ball and avoid giving this explosive offense extra opportunities.
Pressure Hoover
Pressuring any quarterback is important, but is more crucial against one the caliber of Hoover. Last year, from a clean pocket, he completed 70.8% of his passes for 3,226 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. When under pressure, though, he completed just 48.5% of his passes for 726 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Making him throw from a muddy pocket is what can slow down this vaunted passing attack.
Injury Report
Tar Heels
OUT- Austin Blaske (foot)
QUEST- Christo Kelly (undisclosed)
TCU
OUT- Keylan Abrams (leg)
Projected Starting Lineup
Tar Heels
Offense
QB# 7 Gio Lopez, So.
RB#21 Davion Gause, So.
WR-X# 1 Jordan Shipp, So.
WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Sr.
TE#19 Jake Johnson, Jr.
LT#72 Eidan Buchanan, Fr.
LG#52 Daniel King, Sr.
C#53 Christo Kelly, Sr.
RG#68 Aidan Banfield, So.
RT#55 Jakai Moore, Sr.
Defense
DE# 8 Smith Vilbert, Sr.
NT#92 CJ Mims, Jr.
DT# 6 D’Antre Robinson, So.
DE#10 Pryce Yates, Sr.
WLB# 7 Khmori House, So.
MLB# 2 Andrew Simpson, Sr.
CB# 1 Thaddeus Dixon, Sr.
SS#21 Kaleb Cost, Jr.
FS#31 Will Hardy, Sr.
CB#29 Marcus Allen, Sr.
NB# 5 Gavin Gibson, Sr.
Special Teams
PK#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.
P#96 Tom Maginness, Sr.
KOS#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.
LS#42 Spencer Triplett, Sr.
H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.
KR# 3 Chris Culliver, Jr.
PR#31 Will Hardy, Sr.
TCU
Offense
QB#10 Josh Hoover, Jr.
RB# 6 Trent Battle, Sr.
WR-X# 1 Eric McAlister, Sr.
WR-Z# 7 Jordan Dwyer, Jr.
WR-SL#14 Joseph Manjack IV, Sr.
TE# 0 D’Andre Rogers, Sr.
LT#70 Ryan Hughes, RFr.
LG#60 Cade Bennett, Sr.
C#51 Coltin Deery, Sr.
RG#62 Cason Bruno, Sr.
RT#56 Ben Taylor-Whitfield, Jr.
Defense
DE# 0 Zach Chapman, So.
NT#95 Markis Deal, So.
DT#92 Ansel Din-Mbuh, Jr.
STUD#11 Devean Deal, Sr.
WLB# 4 Namdi Obiazor, Sr.
MLB# 3 Kaleb Elarms-Orr, Sr.
FCB# 7 Channing Canada, Sr.
FS#21 Bud Clark, Sr.
SS# 2 Jamel Johnson, Jr.
CB#25 Elijah Jackson, Sr.
NB# 1 Austin Jordan, Sr.
Special Teams
PK#34 Kyle Lemmerman, So.
P#31 Ethan Craw, Sr.
KOS#34 Kyle Lemmerman, So.
LS#96 Cal Keeler, RFr.
H#97 Easton Black, Jr.
KR# 3 Major Everhart, Jr.
PR#14 Joseph Manjack IV, Sr.
Game Information
Kickoff Time: 8:00 PM ET
Weather: 69℉, 0% chance of rain
Betting Line: TCU -3.5
TV: ESPN
Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network