Heel Tough Blog: UCF Preview

Lance King- Getty Images

Despite two attempts to play them in the last seven years, the Tar Heels will take on Central Florida for the first time in program history on Saturday afternoon. In what will be an important test for the Tar Heels, they look to respond to their season opening loss to a Big 12 team with a win that could spark some belief in the fanbase once again. Here is a look at everything you need to know for this crucial non-conference meeting with the Knights in Orlando.

Team Breakdowns

Tar Heels

This feels like a big game early for the Bill Belichick tenure. A win would give some life to the conversation about this team making a bowl game, which was the baseline expectation for the Tar Heels coming into the season. Offensively, the team made some strides in the last two weeks, but the staff still has a question at quarterback that they have to figure out. Gio Lopez has had moments where he has flashed what we saw in his time at South Alabama, but those moments feel too streaky to feel confident that he can run this offense efficiently against P4 opponents. This game feels like a line of demarcation for Lopez and if he struggles again, there need to be serious conversations about turning this offense over to Max Johnson for the remainder of the season. The good news for Lopez is that he has some help in the form of true freshman running back Demon June. June has shined the last two weeks and has taken a firm hold on the starting job because of his North-South running ability and physical running style that fits what this offense is looking for. Davion Gause and Caleb Hood are also a key part of this run game and will play some important snaps for the team moving forward. At wide receiver, Jordan Shipp has emerged as the most consistent threat in the wide receiver room and looks poised to make plays all season long. The team needs some of the others in this room to step up, as well, and hopefully that will come hand-in-hand with better quarterback play. The tight end spot seems to be in good hands with Jake Johnson after his performance this past weekend and that could be valuable for whatever happens at quarterback. On the offensive line, injuries continue to limit this unit from being properly evaluated, but the guys that have been playing have improved over the past few weeks as they’ve gained some continuity. The group still needs to be better at run blocking, but they have to feel pretty confident in their ability to protect the quarterback going into this game led by the right side of the unit where Daniel King and Jakai Moore are off to strong starts in that area.

On the other side of the ball, the team was able to clean up the mistakes that were made in the opener and gain a ton of confidence with back-to-back games where they didn’t allow a touchdown. The defensive line has taken a major step forward over the past couple of weeks, especially in run defense. On the interior of the unit, guys like Isaiah Johnson and Leroy Jackson have made major strides since the opener in terms of gap discipline and it has made a huge difference. On the edge, Melkart Abou-Jaoude feels like a guy that has improved every week since the opener and could pair nicely next to Pryce Yates when he returns from whatever injury he is dealing with. Linebacker is the strength of the unit with an outstanding trio that involves leading tacklers Andrew Simpson and Khmori House and this week’s ACC linebacker of the week, Mikai Gbayor. On the back end, things have gotten better since the opener, but that came against what might be the two weakest passing games that the team has faced this season. While Saturday will be a test for the rest of the unit, it feels like you can go in confident in what Thaddeus Dixon is bringing to table based on how dominant he has been in the first three weeks.

The special teams unit is in as good a shape as it could be right now. Tom Maginness has been much better to start this season than he has been in the past two years and Rece Verhoff has hit every kick that he has been tasked with so far this season. In the return game, Chris Culliver still remains a major threat and Will Hardy has been the serviceable punt returner that they thought he would be.

UCF

The Knights are led by Scott Frost, who is back at Central Florida after eight years away and off to a strong start to his second tenure. The Knights, who have already had a bye week, have found their quarterback in Tayven Jackson, the Indiana transfer and he is off to a very solid start to the season. The running back room is in good shape with the steady Myles Montgomery and the explosive Jaden Nixon, who has found the endzone twice on six carries. At wide receiver, Duane Thomas Jr. and DJ Black are off to good starts and Dylan Wade is a threat at tight end that the Tar Heels must be aware of going into this matchup. The offensive line is off to a promising start to the season, especially in run blocking situations as they’ve paved the way for one of the most successful rushing teams in the country early on. In pass protection, they have also allowed just 12 total pressures and two sacks so far this year.

While the offense has shown some promise, it’s the Knights defense that might be the best of the three units on this team. It all starts up front where Tar Heel transfer Rodney Lora and edge rusher Nyjalik Kelly have lived in the offensive backfields in the first two games of the season. At linebacker, Cole Kozlowski is off to a promising start to the season, but the group has been part of the issue behind the Knights allowing as many rushing yards as they have so far this year. The defensive backfield hasn’t been thoroughly tested yet this year, but they still deserve a lot of praise for allowing less than 100 yards per game. Jayden Bellamy and Antoine Jackson and Braeden Marshall is off to a great start in the nickel spot.

The special unit is a tale of two stories. At placekicker, Noe Ruelas, who transferred in from James Madison, has already missed two kicks so far this year and Anthony Venneri is averaging just 37.8 yards per punt. Both returners, however, have been productive with Nixon already taking one kick return for a touchdown and Jackson is averaging 19.7 yards per punt return.

Team Stats

Tar Heels

Off. PPG: 25.0 (T-87th)

Off. PYPG: 148.7 (119th)

Off. RYPG: 130.3 (T-101st)

Off. TYPG: 279.0 (T-127th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 33.3% (T-109th)

Off. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-41st)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 55.6% (T-91st)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 16.0 (T-80th)

Sacks Allowed: 4.0 (T-47th)

Def. PPG: 19.0 (T-53rd)

Def. PYPG: 203.0 (64th)

Def. RYPG: 134.3 (72nd)

Def. TYPG: 337.3 (T-69th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 46.3% (117th)

Def. 4th Down %: 40.0% (T-41st)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 9.1% (5th)

Tackles for A Loss: 12.0 (T-106th)

Sacks: 4.0 (T-99th)

Interceptions: 4 (T-12th)

Turnover Margin: +2 (T-32nd)

Penalties Per Game: 4.0 (T-19th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 43.3 (T-39th)

UCF

Off. PPG: 42.5 (23rd)

Off. PYPG: 259.0 (43rd)

Off. RYPG: 232.0 (20th)

Off. TYPG: 491.0 (21st)

Off. 3rd Down %: 46.2% (T-44th)

Off. 4th Down %: 100.0% (T-1st)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 42.9% (T-116th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 8.0 (T-8th)

Sacks Allowed: 3.0 (T-26th)

Def. PPG: 8.5 (9th)

Def. PYPG: 98.5 (3rd)

Def. RYPG: 162.5 (102nd)

Def. TYPG: 261.0 (26th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 25.8% (18th)

Def. 4th Down %: 66.7% (T-94th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 50.0% (T-45th)

Tackles for A Loss: 18.0 (T-61st)

Sacks: 5.0 (T-83rd)

Interceptions: 2 (T-57th)

Turnover Margin: +3 (T-26th)

Penalties Per Game: 7.5 (T-102nd)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 67.5 (111th)

Keys to the Game

Win the Line of Scrimmage

This is the first real test for these units since the opener and it is an area they need to win in order to pick up a victory in Orlando. Both units for the Tar Heels were able to gain some confidence over the last couple of weeks and now must prove that they are better than they were in the opener. If the offensive line can win in the run game and the defensive line can do the same, you feel pretty good about the Tar Heels chances here.

Stop the Run

It’s time to find out if the run defense has really improved from the opener or not. The defense has done a much better job of gap control in the last two games and that will have to continue on Saturday if they want to limit this explosive running game of the Knights. The other thing that will be important is for the team to continue tackling the way they have after a disastrous season opener. If they do both of these things they should be able to slow down this run game and win this game.

Remain Disciplined

The Tar Heels have been one of the more disciplined teams so far this season and this team needs to continue that on Saturday afternoon. The team on the other side is one of the least disciplined teams in the country and the Tar Heels don’t need to let them drag them into a flagfest like certain games that we’ve seen in years past under previous coaching regimes. If the Tar Heels can remain a disciplined bunch, that might just be the difference in the game.

Injury Report

Tar Heels

OUT- Pryce Yates (undisclosed)

QUEST- Austin Blaske (foot), William Boone (undisclosed), Christo Kelly (undisclosed), Andrew Simpson (undisclosed)

UCF

OUT- Ric’Darious Farmer (undisclosed), Justin Royes (undisclosed), Taevion Swint (knee)

QUEST- Cam Fancher (back), Jayden Williams (thumb)

Projected Starting Lineup

Tar Heels

Offense

QB# 7 Gio Lopez, So.

RB#35 Demon June, Fr.

WR-X# 1 Jordan Shipp, So.

WR-SL# 0 Alex Taylor, RFr.

WR-Z# 3 Chris Culliver, Jr.

TE#80 Jordan Owens, Sr.

LT#78 Trevyon Green, Jr.

LG#68 Aidan Banfield, So.

C#69 Chad Lindberg, Sr.

RG#52 Daniel King, Sr.

RT#55 Jakai Moore, Sr.

Defense

DE# 8 Smith Vilbert, Sr.

DT# 6 D’Antre Robinson, So.

DT#91 Leroy Jackson, RFr.

DE# 9 Melkart Abou-Jaoude, Jr.

WLB# 7 Khmori House, So.

MLB# 2 Andrew Simpson, Sr.

CB# 1 Thaddeus Dixon, Sr.

SS# 5 Gavin Gibson, Sr.

FS#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

CB#29 Marcus Allen, Sr.

NB#21 Kaleb Cost, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

P#96 Tom Maginness, Sr.

KOS#90 Rece Verhoff, Sr.

LS#42 Spencer Triplett, Sr.

H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KR# 3 Chris Culliver, Jr.

PR#31 Will Hardy, Sr.

UCF

Offense

QB# 2 Tayven Jackson, Jr.

RB#22 Myles Montgomery, Sr.

WR-X# 3 Marcus Burke, Sr.

WR-Z# 9 DJ Black, Sr.

WR-SL# 7 Duane Thomas Jr., Jr.

TE# 0 Dylan Wade, Jr.

LT#69 Paul Rubelt, Sr.

LG#64 Gaard Memmelaar, Sr.

C#52 Carter Miller, Jr.

RG#77 Keegan Smith, Sr.

RT#78 Preston Cushman, Jr.

Defense

LDE#51 Malachi Lawrence, Sr.

NT#55 John Walker, So.

DT#94 Rodney Lora, So.

RDE# 9 Nyjalik Kelly, Sr.

WLB#20 Carter Lewis, Jr.

MLB#43 Cole Kozlowski, Sr.

LCB# 7 Antoine Jackson, Jr.

FS# 2 Phillip Dunnam, Sr.

SS#23 Jayden Williams, Sr.

RCB#29 Jayden Bellamy, Jr.

NB# 4 Braeden Marshall, Jr.

Special Teams

PK#16 Noe Ruelas, Sr.

P#40 Anthony Venneri, Jr.

KOS#16 Noe Ruelas, Sr.

LS#47 Dalton Riggs, Jr.

H#40 Anthony Venneri, Jr.

KR# 5 Jaden Nixon, Sr.

PR# 7 Antoine Jackson, Jr.

Game Information

Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM ET

Weather: 88℉, 15% chance of rain, 10 mph NE

TV: FOX

Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network