Heel Tough Blog: Wake Forest Preview

The Wilson Times

It’s game day for Carolina Basketball, and the Tar Heels are on the road once again, as they travel to Wake Forest to take on the red-hot Demon Deacons. Carolina is coming off a disappointing loss to Stanford at home over the weekend, that snapped their four-game winning streak. The loss was another example of this team not being able to close out another opponent, as Carolina led by three with just over three minutes to go, but failed to close out the game. The loss dropped Carolina to 12-7 on the season, and 5-2 in the ACC, a far cry from where we thought this team would be back in the preseason. 

Wake Forest has won five games in a row entering tonight’s matchup, and they have raced out to a 6-1 record in conference play. This game starts a two week stretch that’ll likely define the season for the Demon Deacons, and if they make the NCAA Tournament or not. They are 14-4 on the year and a big reason why has been their ability to protect their home floor, where they are 9-0 this season. Hunter Sallis is their leading scorer, averaging over 19 points per game, for a team that isn’t as explosive as they’ve been in years past, given that they only shoot 28% from behind the arc. 

It’s been uneven for Carolina away from Chapel Hill, with wins at Hawaii, Notre Dame, and NC State, with losses at Kansas and Louisville, The wins over the Irish and the Wolfpack, came in dramatic fashion, with Carolina literally winning the game in the final seconds. Given how good Wake Forest has been at home, combined with what it looks like to be a lively environment in Winston-Salem, Carolina will have its hands full for 40 minutes. 

Hubert Davis said the little things and the lack of attention to detail hurt them in the loss to Stanford on Saturday. Wake Forest has already beaten Stanford, by double digits, and figures to be a better team than the Cardinal happen to be this season. With that in mind, Carolina will have to be better in every facet tonight, if they hope to get back on track. 

1. Fast Start Defensively: RJ Davis said the defensive intensity wasn’t there down the stretch on Saturday, and that was the biggest reason why they got beat. That can’t be the case tonight, even against a team as offensively challenged this season as Wake Forest has been. The Heels lead the ACC in opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point percentage, and during the winning streak, their defense had been fueling its offense. The building is going to be energetic, and Wake has better shooters than what their numbers would suggest, so Carolina needs to be locked in from the start, and defend the way they had in wins over Notre Dame, SMU, NC State, and California. You would like to see Hubert Davis stay aggressive, with the full-court press after dead-ball situations, to help his team get back to playing with the edge they had during the winning streak. 

2. Get Ian Jackson Back in Rhythm: Ian Jackson had his first bad game as a Tar Heel, scoring six points, and was 0-5 from behind the arc. While RJ Davis stepped up and played well, and Elliot Cadeau reached double figures, you could see the offensive limitations this group has, when Jackson isn’t playing at a high level. We’re going to learn how Jackson responds to adversity starting tonight, but his head coach and his teammates need to show their trust in him to make plays they need him to make. Expect Hubert Davis to call a play or two for him right out of the gate, and put the ball in his hands in a pick-and-roll situation, where he can either drive and score, or isolate the defender, and score over him. Either way, Carolina needs him to bounce back in a big way later this evening. 

3. Control the Glass, Control the Tempo: Quietly, Carolina has rounded into a solid rebounding team, averaging over 38 rebounds per game, which is 6th in the ACC. On paper, Carolina has the rebounding advantage tonight, and that needs to be the case, for more than one reason. When Carolina limits the opponent on the offensive glass, they not only get the most out of the possession defensively, but it allows the team to get out in the open floor, and get into their primary and secondary break. Tempo and pace are such big ingredients for this team, and when Carolina has dictated the pace of play, they’ve shown what they are capable of. Furthermore, when Carolima is aggressive in getting to the offensive glass, it helps their offense out in the half-court, and it usually helps them get to the foul line. Controlling the glass, and controlling the pace is a big ingredient for Carolina winning on the road, and we’ll find out later tonight if they are up to the task. 

Series History: 

• Carolina is 165-69 all-time against Wake Forest, and they have won 14 of the last 18 matchups. But in Lawrence-Joel Veteran Coliseum, UNC is just 15-13 against the Demon Deacons, including three straight losses, all in blowout fashion. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 32nd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 115.9 (43rd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.3 (36th) 

• Wake Forest - 77th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 107.9 (152nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.2 (34th) 

NET: 

• North Carolina - 38th. 

• Wake Forest - 77th. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will start at 9 PM on ESPN> 

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