This afternoon, the Tar Heels begin play in the ACC Tournament, after enjoying the double-bye into the quarterfinals, after winning the ACC regular season title. It’s already been a productive week for Carolina, as earlier in the week, R.J. Davis was officially named the ACC Player of the Year, and Hubert Davis was named the ACC Coach of the Year, now the team will look to sweep the ACC regular season, along with the ACC tournament, for the first time since 2016, when Carolina ultimately play for the national championship.
Florida State advanced to the quarterfinal round, after dispatching Virginia Tech in the 8/9 game yesterday, behind a big game from Jamir Watkins. Florida State enters today’s game with a 17-15 record, they went 10-10 in the conference during the regular season. Watkins scored 32 points in the win over the Hokies and is the leading scorer at over 15 points per game. Leonard Hamilton built Florida State into a national contender in large part because they had size and length, making them a quality defensive team. While the Noles aren’t as big or long as they’ve been in years past, they do average over 9 steals per game, while forcing over 15 turnovers per game. After forcing 17 turnovers back in January, Florida State will look to turn the Heels over early and often.
Carolina swept Florida State in the regular season, storming back to beat them 78-70 in Chapel Hill in early December, going on a 22-0 run, to turn a double-digit deficit into a double-digit lead. In Tallahassee, Carolina stormed out to a double-digit lead, before finding themselves trailing at the half. A big second half, helped them erase that deficit, and ultimately secured one of their road wins this season. Despite losing both games in the regular season, Florida State matches up well with Carolina, and we all know how hard it is to beat a team three times in the same season.
After dominating the conference in the regular season, Carolina will now look to validate that with a good showing in the conference tournament, hoping to do enough to be the final #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. For that to happen, Carolina most likely has to win the ACC Tournament, or at least make the final. Here’s how they can advance to tomorrow’s semifinal round:
Be Ready to Play: Carolina has had five days to come down from the high of winning at Duke, to secure the ACC regular season title. After beating Duke back in February, Carolina came out flat against Clemson and ultimately suffered their only home loss of the season. With UNC playing in the first game of the day, the arena won’t be as full as it will be later tonight, meaning Carolina will have to create their own energy, This is where Carolina’s senior leadership needs to be on display, and the team needs to be ready to go from the opening tip, to avoid having to make yet another comeback against Florida State this season.
Limit Turnovers: Carolina turned it over 17 times in the second game against the Noles this season, leading to 26 points for them, fueling their offense, which nearly pulled the upset. What’s even more troubling about that game, was four of Carolina’s five starters committed at least two turnovers or more, including R.J. Davis, who turned it over 4 times. If that happens today, it’s hard to imagine Carolina winning the game. Expect Hubert Davis to play Seth Trimble more than Elliot Cadeau, as Trimble is a bigger guard, better equipped to handle the size and length Florida State will deploy when applying pressure in the backcourt. It’s hard to win this time of the year when you’re turning it over left and right, and Carolina needs to value possessions and make Florida State have to play against their set defense.
Don’t Let Watkins Build Off Yesterday: The reason why you see teams make runs in conference tournaments is because a player gets hot while playing in the first or second round, which carries over the longer the tournament. That can certainly be the case for Jamir Watkins, who scored over 30 points in the win over Virginia Tech and will enter today’s game seeing a big basket and feeling as confident as he has all season long. Carolina needs to be aware of that, and not allow Watkins to get cooking early, because he’s capable of willing his team to a win, like we saw yesterday. Expect to see a multitude of different defenders be thrown his way, to wear him down as the game moves along.
UNC in the ACC Tournament:
This is the 71st ACC Tournament, and Carolina is 106-51 in the previous 70 tournaments, with 18 conference tournament titles. The last time Carolina won the ACC Tournament was in 2016, when that tournament was also held in Washington, D.C. This is the 27th time, Carolina has been the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament, and they’ve won the event 11 times as a #1 seed. As a #1 seed, Carolina is 21-0 in the quarterfinal round.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 8th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.3 (25th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 93.3 (5th)
Florida State - 80th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.0 (96th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (67th)
NET:
North Carolina - 7th.
Florida State - 91st.
TV Info:
Today’s game will tip at 12 PM on ESPN.
The Four Corners Podcast: