Heel Tough Blog: Duke Preview

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It’s the final weekend of the regular season, which means it’s time for the greatest rivalry in sports, North Carolina-Duke, to renew itself tonight in historic Cameron Indoor Stadium, on the campus of Duke University in Durham. Carolina won the first matchup in dramatic fashion, as Seth Trimble knocked down a three-pointer with 0.4 left to play, to give Carolina their only lead in a 71-68 win. Carolina got big games from both Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, along with contributions from the aforementioned Trimble, and timely playmaking from Derek Dixon. 

Obviously, the difference in this game, as opposed to the first one, is the availability of Caleb Wilson. After the Duke win a month ago, Wilson fractured his left hand in the very next game, in a loss at Miami. That injury forced him to miss six straight games, with Wilson working his way back to possible play tonight. But during Thursday’s practice, Wilson broke his thumb while dunking the ball in a non-contact drill, effectively ending his freshman season at North Carolina, and probably his UNC career, with Wilson expected to declare for the NBA Draft, where he will be a top-5 pick later this summer. 

Duke hasn’t lost since losing to Carolina a month ago, emerging as the best team in all of college basketball. The Blue Devils are ranked #1 in the country, #1 in KenPom, and if the season were to end today, they’d be the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Cameron Boozer is going to be the ACC Player of the Year and the National Player of the Year, as he leads Duke in scoring and rebounding, where he averages a double-double. He’s had help in the form of Isaiah Evans, who’s averaging over 17 points per game in ACC competition. Caleb Foster has emerged as a steady hand at the point guard position, and they are getting consistent contributions from Patrick Ngongba, among other role players, making them the most formidable team in all of college basketball. 

As hard as it may seem, the Tar Heels have to move on from the Wilson news and get ready to enter a hostile environment and be ready to compete for 40 minutes. Hubert Davis has gotten a lot of praise for the way he’s guided Carolina so far this season, amidst the Wilson injuries, in addition to Seeth Trimble and Henri Veesaar missing time as well. Davis was able to outcoach Jon Scheyer in the first matchup, as UNC won despite trailing by as many as 13. Here’s how Davis can guide the Tar Heels to another unlikely win in Durham: 

1. Make Perimeter Shots: In Carolina’s win over Clemson on Tuesday, the Tar Heels were able to overcome a 38% night from the field by making 12 threes, behind Luka Bogavac’s 6-10 performance. Without Caleb Wilson, Duke is going to try to make Carolina’s guards beat them from the outside, and the Heels need to answer the call. Not only did Bogavac enjoy a big game, but so did Derek Dixon, who was 3-4 from behind the arc. Dixon has been mired in a month-long shooting slump, and now would be the perfect time to break out of it. The Heels need to be deliberate and not take the volume of threes that they did against NC State, but they’ll need to make a number of threes to open up the Duke defense. 

2. Rebounding: Carolina was able to win the first game, despite being outrebounded by 12. At the under-12 media timeout of the first half, UNC only had one rebound, and it was a team rebound, meaning that Roy Williams had as many rebounds while watching the game in the stands as the players on the court had. That can’t happen tonight, especially without Caleb Wilson available. Henri Veesaar, who didn’t have a rebound in the first half in the first matchup, but responded with a double-double in the second half, needs to man the paint like a man possessed. Jarin Stevenson has been the unsung hero at different times this season, and he needs to put together a performance similar to Tuesday night (9 points and 10 rebounds). In addition to that, guards and wings need to impact the game on the glass. 

3. Turnovers & Free Throws: After poor free-throw shooting efforts in the wins over Syracuse and Louisville, Carolina has shot 73% or better in back-to-back games from the foul line. They’ll need to shoot north of 75% tonight and take 20 or more free throws to generate some easy points, with the clock stopped. Furthermore, they’ll need to take care of the basketball and limit the pick-six turnovers that have plagued them at times this season. 

Series History:

• Carolina is 146-121 all-time against Duke, including being 51-57 in Durham. In Cameron Indoor Stadium, Carolina is 40-48, but the 40 wins are the most by a visiting opponent. In the last 20 games in Durham, Carolina is 10-10, despite being the underdogs in 16 of the 20 contests. Tonight will mark the 89th time they’ve played, while both teams are ranked, with UNC holding a 45-43 edge in the previous 88 matchups. Hubert Davis is 5-6 against Duke and is 2-2 in Cameron. 

KenPom: 

• North Carolina - 29th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 121.8 (34th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (40th) 

• Duke - 1st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 128.7 (4th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 88.0 (1st) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 24th. 

• Duke - 1st. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will air at 6:30 PM on ESPN. 

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