Heel Tough Blog: North Carolina Central Preview

Avanca.com

After securing a clunky win over Radford earlier this week, 89-74, the Tar Heels are back in action at home later tonight, against North Carolina Central. This will be the second game without Seth Trimble, who is sidelined for the next 6-7 weeks with a broken arm. His absence forced Luka Bogavac into the starting lineup, who led UNC in scoring and assists in the win over Radford, and appeared to find his offensive rhythm in the second half. With that in mind, Carolina is seeking a more fluid performance tonight, after shooting just 38% from the field, 26% from behind the arc, and going 31-49 from the foul line on Tuesday night. 

North Carolina Central enters tonight’s game with a 1-3 record, already having been blown out twice by ACC competition. NC State opened the season with a 114-66 win over the Eagles, and Virginia also topped them 81-62. Their other loss came at App State, with their lone win over Bluefield State mixed in between. They rank among the worst teams in the country in KenPom’s overall rankings, as well as adjusted offensive and defensive rankings, very similar to Carolina’s season-opening opponent, Central Arkansas. They have two players currently averaging double figures in scoring, led by Gage Lattimore (24.0) and Khouri Carvey (16.3), although as a team, NCCU averages less than 65 points per game. 

Last Friday night, Carolina hosted Kansas for the first time ever, creating an atmosphere in the Smith Center unlike we’ve ever seen in early November. With a 9 PM tip tonight, it’s safe to say that the environment won’t be nearly the same, given the difference in opponent. But for a group that is seeking consistency, tonight will be a test to see how far they’ve come since Tuesday’s uneven effort against the Radford Highlanders. Here’s what to watch tonight. 

1. Fast Start: With a late tip and a less than inspired crowd, don’t expect there to be a lot of energy in the building tonight, meaning Carolina will need to create their own. An early theme in the first three games of the season is that Carolina has struggled to play at a high level in the first half, before putting together more complete performances in the second half. That needs to change tonight, against an opponent that has been overwhelmed in the opening halves in blowout losses to NC State and Virginia. Expect a bounce-back game for Caleb Wilson, who was just 4-13 against Radford on Tuesday night. After getting more comfortable in the second half, Luka Bogavac could be in store for his best performance as a Tar Heel in his young career. If those two things happen, combined with the steadying force that Henri Veesaar has been, it could produce the best first half we’ve seen from Carolina this season. 

2. Make Your Free Throws: One thing Carolina has done a good job of so far this season is getting the opponent in foul trouble, getting into the bonus early and often. The issue has been how many points Carolina has left at the foul line, including in the Radford game, where Carolina was just 31-49 on Tuesday night, and that was after shooting in the 60 percentile from the foul line in the Kansas win. As you could expect, going against a school from the MEAC, Carolina is going to have the size advantage, along with the physical advantage, both of which should overwhelm NCCU, and put them in foul trouble, early and often. If that’s the case, Carolina needs to do a better job of not leaving points on the foul and make the most of their freebies. 

3. Bench Production: With Luka Bogavac starting for the injured Seth Trimble, Carolina’s depth is being tested. The plan was to bring Luka along slowly and insert him into the starting lineup, but with the way that Jarin Stevenson has played, it wouldn’t be fair to punish him, and then Trimble’s injury forced Luka into the starting lineup. Carolina’s bench scored 21 points against Radford, but the production came from two players, Jonathan Powell and Derrek Dixon. Considering how much Henri Veesaar played in the first half the other night, you know Hubert isn’t comfortable with either Zayden High or James Brown playing extended minutes. That means the burden falls on Powell, who needs to be more dynamic off the bench from behind the arc, while Derek Dixon continues to acclimate himself to the college game. Jaydon Young, looking like an ACC guard, would go a long way as well. 

Series History: 

• Carolina is 3-0 all-time against NCCU, with the most recent win taking place back in December of 2020. All of the previous three matchups have been played in Chapel Hill, just like tonight’s contest. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 27th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.2 (23rd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.2 (33rd) 

• North Carolina Central - 347th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 99.4 (315th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 115.5 (355th) 

TV Info:

• Tonight’s game will be televised on the ACC Network, with a scheduled tip time of 9 PM. 

The Four Corners Podcast: