After not having a mid-week game earlier this week, the Tar Heels return to action today, as they host Pittsburgh, in a game that they desperately need if they want to get back into the NCAA Tournament conversation. The last time we saw Carolina, they lost 87-70 at Duke, in a game that wasn’t even as close as the final scour would indicate, as they trailed by 29 in the first half, and 34 in the second half. After the game, Hubert Davis said that the week off came at the right time for his team, as he still believes they haven’t played their best basketball, and that they are capable of playing a better brand of basketball than what we’ve seen so far this season.
Pittsburgh, like Carolina, has trended backward in conference play and finds itself out on the outside looking for the NCAA Tournament. Before beating Carolina two weeks ago, Pitt had lost 4 straight, and since beating UNC, they’ve lost two straight, as they sit at 14-9 on the season, and 5-6 in the ACC. The loss earlier this week to Virginia at home, puts them in a position to earn multiple marquee wins, just to get back on the right side of the NCAA Tournament conversation, and even though UNC isn’t currently a tournament team, a sweep of UNC would go a long way for Jeff Capel’s squad.
It was a tale of two halves two weeks ago when Carolina lost, 73-65 at Pittsburgh. Carolina led 44-42 at the half and looked like they were on their way to earning a big win on the road. Instead in the second half, their offense bogged down scoring just 21 points across the final 20 minutes, including mustering only 4 points over the final 8 minutes of play, to lose 73-65, squandering a chance to earn a Quad 1 win away from Chapel Hill.
The week off should’ve given Hubert Davis and his staff time to reevaluate everything that has led them to the point where they are at in the season and try to make changes that could turn the season around in a big way. It may not seem like it, but everything is still in front of Carolina, all they have to do is take full advantage of the opportunities they have left, because they’ve run out of losses, as they are just the third team since 1950 to have 10 losses by February 1st. Here’s Carolina can get back on track, and earn a win over Pittsburgh:
Limit Live-Ball Turnovers: In the loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, UNC turned it over 14 times, leading to 22 points for the Panthers. The biggest reason they got blown out at Duke was due to turnovers in live action, which led to layups, dunks, or threes for Duke going the other way. Hubert Davis has stressed the importance of taking care of the basketball, but we’re at the point now, that if you commit a bad turnover, there needs to be consequences, starting with Elliot Cadeau, who has had an up-and-down season in that department. Simply put, this team can’t overcome backbreaking turnovers that fuel big runs for the opponents, they need to limit the turnovers down the stretch of the regular season, starting today.
Get to the Foul Line: Pittsburgh made 10 more free throws than Carolina did in the first matchup, and they took 11 more, a recipe that’s hard to overcome when trying to win on the road. When Carolina’s offense has been in high gear, it’s because they are living at the foul line, scoring with the clock stopped, the most efficient way to score the basketball. With 4 guards on the floor for extended minutes, there’s no reason why Carolina can’t and won’t pressure the rim, and attack the defense going to the basket. The aggression we saw the last time Carolina was at home, where they lived at the foul line against Boston College, needs to be on display this afternoon.
Make Shots: Roy Williams always said that everything looks better when the ball goes in the basket, and that’s certainly the case with this team. Quietly, RJ Davis has broken out of a shooting slump, and is now shooting 40% from the field, and over 30% from behind the arc, but he needs his running mates, most notably Ian Jackson, to help him score the ball efficiently. After scoring 20 points or more, in 5 of 6 games, Jackson has been held in check, outside of the Boston College game, where he made two big threes in the second half. He needs to get back to looking for scoring chances in the open floor, and Seth Trimble has to be a difference-maker as well, scoring in the mid-range. If Elliot Cadeau can provide some scoring at the rim, that would also help matters. The strength of this team lies with the backcourt, and the only way this season gets turned around is if the quarter of guards, led by RJ Davis, begins to play at a high level.
Series History:
UNC is 17-9 all-time against the Panthers, including 7-3 in Chapel Hill, and 6-3 in the Smith Center, although the three losses have all come consecutively.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 40th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.7 (40th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (54th)
Pittsburgh - 44th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.7 (21st) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (89th)
NET:
North Carolina - 45th.
Pittsburgh - 47th.
TV Info:
Today’s game will tip at 4 PM, on ESPNU.
The Four Corners Podcast:
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