Heel Tough Blog: Duke Recap

@UNCMBBStats

After a more than competitive first half, the Tar Heels lost contact with Duke in the second half, falling in the regular season finale 76-61, to finish the regular season at 24-7, and 12-6 in the ACC. Without Caleb Wilson, Carolina played a more competitive first half last night than they did back in the matchup in Chapel Hill, only trailing 36-34 at half. After two early threes to start the second half, Carolina only trailed 41-40, and it looked like we were in store for another classic finish between the two rivals. Instead, Duke responded with an extended 30-6 run to put the game away, on their way to the win, making it the first time since 2021-22 that the two schools split their regular season meetings. Carolina actually outshot Duke from the field, 45% as compared to 42%, and shot 38% from behind the arc, on nine makes, but turnovers, and the lack of rebounding doomed Carolina in the end. Carolina turned it over 14 times last night, leading to 24 points for the Blue Devils, and they were outrebounded 42-29, including 18-5 on the offensive glass, which allowed Duke to take 16 more shots than UNC. 

The need for better point guard play has never been greater, with Caleb Wilson officially out for the season, and the silver lining from last night might have been Derek Dixon breaking out of his shooting slump. The freshman point guard scored a career-high 17 points and was 5-8 from behind the arc. If that level of production carries over into the ACC and NCAA Tournaments, Carolina still has a chance to do some damage this month. 

Carolina was 17.5 points underdogs last night, so the margin of defeat wasn’t all that surprising, considering Carolina was without their best player. To add insult to injury, before Wilson injured his thumb on Thursday, officially ending his season, he had been cleared for 5 on 5 contact, paving the way for him to play before the injury. You wonder with Wilson on the floor, how different last night’s game would have been. Here’s what to take away from last night’s disappointing result against Duke: 

1. Turnovers: Even with Carolina on pace to set the school record for fewest turnovers committed per game, they have had issues taking care of the basketball on the road, and that showed up last night. Carolina gave the ball away 14 times, leading to 24 points for the Blue Devils, and it’s what fueled their game-deciding run. Of their 14 turnovers, 12 of them were live-ball miscues, meaning that Duke averaged 2.0 points per live-ball turnover. On the flip side, Carolina’s inability to force turnovers impacted the game as well, as Duke only gave the ball away 8 times, and UNC only converted 4 points off turnovers. 

2. Rebounding: Carolina has played 31 games so far this season, and they’ve yet to look and feel like a typical Carolina team on the glass. After being outrebounded by 12 in the first matchup, the margin was 13 last night, as Duke won the battle of the boards 42-29, including 18-5 on the offensive glass. That +13 advantage on the offensive glass gave Duke a 14-4 edge in second chance points, and gave 16 more shots from the field, and played a role in them taking 11 more free throws than Carolina did. With the absence of Wilson now permanent, the commitment to rebounding as a team effort has never been greater. 

3. Scoring Droughts: The Tar Heels had three separate scoring droughts last night of at least 5:05, playing a big role in why they lost and why they lost by so much. There was an 11-minute stretch in the second half, where they scored just 4 points, and there’s no way to recover from that against that team, in that building. 

4. Uneven Game From Big Henri: After scoring 9 points and grabbing 6 rebounds in the first half, it looked like Henri Veesaar was on his way to having the type of game this team needed him to have, to give themselves a chance to win. Instead, in the second half, he scored just two points and grabbed 3 rebounds, as he took just one shot total in the second stanza, and that came with 1:22 left to play, and the result already decided. If Veesaar is going to be a non-factor like that in an elimination setting beginning next week, who knows how far Carolina can extend their season. 

5. Dixon Delivers: The only bright spot coming out of last night may be Derek Dixon, who appears to have broken out of his shooting slump, leading the team with 17 points, while making 5 three-pointers, both of which are new career highs. Carolina will need his perimeter shooting to show up next week in Charlotte for the ACC Tournament and in the NCAA Tournament, if the team hopes to play deep into either event. 

Up Next: Carolina will begin ACC Tournament action on Thursday night, against either Clemson, Virginia Tech, or Wake Forest. Tip is set for 9:30 PM. 

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