Heel Tough Blog: Pittsburgh Preview

CBS Sports

After losing to Miami on Tuesday night, the Tar Heels are ready to turn the page, as they host Pittsburgh this afternoon in the Smith Center, where Carolina is undefeated this season. The challenge will be moving on without Caleb Wilson, who fractured his left hand in the loss on Tuesday night, leaving Carolina without its leading scorer and rebounder, as Wilson was enjoying the best statistical freshman season we’ve ever seen at North Carolina. 

When Carolina officially announced the injury on Thursday, it was unknown how long they would be without their best player, but we got some clarity on the situation on Friday. According to Inside Carolina, the expectation is for UNC to be without Wilson for 3-4 weeks, with a return for the ACC Tournament as the primary focus. Even with the left hand being fractured, it won’t require surgery, which will speed up the timeline in some form or fashion, which was the best news Carolina could’ve received after the injury was officially diagnosed. 

Pittsburgh hasn’t enjoyed the type of season they would’ve hoped to, as they enter today’s game with just a 9-16 record, including being just 2-10 in the ACC. Road games have been a struggle for Jeff Capel’s squad, as the Panthers are just 1-5 away from home. They’ve been without their leading scorer, Brandin Cummings, for the last two weeks or so, so like Carolina, Pitt will be compromised on the court in this game. Outside of Cummings, Pitt does have three other double-digit scorers, Cameron Corhen (12.0), Barry Dunning Jr (11.7), and Roman Siilepa (10.1).

As we enter today’s game, it’s unknown how Hubert Davis will adjust his starting lineup in the absence of Caleb Wilson. Many believe that Davis will replace Wilson with Jarin Stevenson, who has started a number of games at the 3, even though his natural position is the 4. If they were to go that route, then finding the starter on the wing could be very interesting. Does Hubert Davis reinsert Jaydon Young back into the starting lineup? Luka Bogavac has found more of a role and a rhythm coming off the bench, but could he be a starter again?  The player who could benefit the most is Jonathan Powell, a 6-6 wing, who has had his moments, but hasn’t had the impact many expected after he transferred in from West Virginia. For whatever reason, Powell hasn’t carved out the minutes that other reserves have, despite being arguably the best shooter on the roster, along with a willing and able defender and rebounder. With Powell poised to earn more minutes by default, Carolina could find something late in the season that’ll make them even more dangerous when Wilson ultimately returns. 

Even without Caleb Wilson, Carolina needs to respond emotionally after coming out flat against Miami, even though Hubert Davis was adamant that the team wasn’t experiencing a hangover from the Duke win. Regardless, these are the types of games that Carolina needs to win if they hope to tread water while they wait for their best player to return from injury. Here’s how Carolina can stay perfect at home and avoid their first Quad 3 loss of the season: 

1. Get Off to a Fast Start: In the last two games, Carolina has trailed by double-digits by the second media timeout of the first half. If that happens on Saturday, doubt will start to set in about this team’s ability to play at a high level without their best player. Ever since Jeff Capel arrived in Pittsburgh, this game has been personal and physical, and in what has become a lost season for the Panthers, a road win at Carolina would salvage the season, so you know they are going to come out punching. If Carolina can combat that and play to their strengths, they should be able to control the game and instill belief that the season isn’t over with Wilson sidelined. 

2. Compete on the Glass: Another theme in the last two games has been Carolina’s struggles on the glass, and that only gets emphasized with Wilson on the bench, who leads UNC in rebounding. The pressure starts with Henri Veesaar, who can no longer avoid being a no-show in halves, like he was against Duke in the first half, or Virginia in the second half. Jonathan Powell has proven he’s willing to rebound, and that might be a way for him to earn more minutes. Hubert Davis says all the time that the games need to be UNC rebounding games, and that needs to be the case now more than ever. 

3. Make Perimeter Shots: Without Caleb Wilson, teams are still going to double-team Henri Veesaar and dare Carolina’s shooters to make outside shots. Expect to see more zone defense as well, as even before the Wilson injury, Carolina did struggle at times against that style of defense. Before the loss to Miami, we saw the type of shooting this team is capable of producing, shooting roughlly 38% from behind the arc, on around 8 makes per game. They’ll need to get back to those numbers starting today, against a team that has struggled to defend the perimeter at times in Pittsburgh. 

Availability Report:

• North Carolina - James Brown (OUT), Caleb Wilson (OUT), Ivan Matlekovic (OUT), Henri Veesaar (Probable), Isaiah Denis (Probable). 

• Pittsburgh - Dishon Jackson (OUT), Brandin Cummings (OUT), Papa Amadou Kante (OUT), Damarco Minor (Questionable), Cameron Corhen (Probable) 

Series History: 

• Carolina is 18-9 against Pittsburgh, but only 11-8 since they joined the ACC. Carolina is 8-3 in the Smith Center against Pitt, but the Panthers did win three straight games in Chapel Hill in 2020, 2022, and 2023. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 28th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.3 (27th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (46th) 

• Pittsburgh - 109th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 112.2 (114th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (121st) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 25th. 

• Pittsburgh - 124th. 

TV Info:

• Today’s game will tip at 2 PM on ESPN. 

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