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Writer's pictureAnthony Pagnotta

Heel Tough Blog: Virginia Preview

David Beach- Cal Sports Media

The Tar Heels resume their 2024 season on Saturday as they look to shift the course of the season which currently has them in the midst of a four game losing streak. In order to do that, the team will have to find a way to solve their struggles against the Virginia Cavaliers, to whom they’ve lost five of the last seven. Here’s everything you need to know about Saturday's 129th meeting of the South’s Oldest Rivalry.


Team Breakdowns

Tar Heels

The bye week was a chance to hit the reset button, but there is only so much you can change. This offense is going to be expected to score at a high rate for the rest of the season if this team is going to win. Jacolby Criswell is coming off the best performance of his career against Georgia Tech and he hopes to build off of that this week. Him using his legs to run the football really seemed to unlock something a couple of weeks ago and that needs to be a part of the equation moving forward because of how much it opens up the intermediate passing game. The team will continue to lean heavily on running back Omarion Hampton, who is putting together and amazing season and could challenge the team’s single-season rushing yards record if this team can get to a bowl game. The depth remains strong behind him, especially now that Darwin Barlow should be as healthy as he’s been since Week 1. The wide receiving corps will be in as good a shape it has been since the James Madison game with Christian Hamilton returning to the lineup this weekend. J.J. Jones has been playing better with Criswell at the helm, as has Kobe Paysour, who feels like he has found his stride after breaking both his feet last year. This group will need to step up with Bryson Nesbit out indefinitely following surgery on broken wrist. John Copenhaver will have to shoulder more of the load in the receiving game in his absence, something he should be capable of doing. Keep an eye on Jake Johnson, who could see his role expand as well. The offensive line has seen plenty of success from its interior members, but needs more from the tackles in run blocking and pass protection if this offense is going to be as successful as they need to be.

The defense got a chance to hit that reset button, but it’s hard to believe this group can actually show improvement until we actually see it. Everything is going to have to start up front, where Kaimon Rucker being as healthy as he’s been since Week 1 should help. Des Evans has been solid all season long, as has Travis Shaw in the run game, but the rest of the unit, especially the interior guys, need to step up. The linebacker duo of Power Echols and Amare Campbell have been struggling to fill gaps in the run game and they simply need to be better down the stretch of the season if this team is going to have any chance of slowing down opposing rushing attacks. The secondary is a disaster that might be beyond repair outside of corner Alijah Huzzie. Marcus Allen continues to have issues with consistency, while Kaleb Cost is as hit-and-miss as any corner in college football this season. The safety tandem of Jakeen Harris and Stick Lane have been as disappointing as any group on this team with their tackling and coverage issues and it’s hard to see those issues disappearing because of a bye week. At some point there has to be more rotation back there to see if there are guys that can contribute in future years.

The special teams unit is better than a year ago, but still has one major flaw. The punting game has been a disaster with Tom Maginness struggling and the issues with punt protection so far this year. The rest of the unit has been really solid, including the kick coverage unit that was one of the worst in the country. Kicker Noah Burnette won the team the first game of the season and has been really solid the rest of the season following a breakout performance last season. The team also boasts one of the better punt returners in the country this season in Alijah Huzzie who is averaging 16.8 per return and has already taken one to the house.

Virginia

The Cavaliers have surprised this season in Tony Elliott’s important third year at the helm. It all starts with the offense, which has taken a major step forward from last season under the direction of quarterback Anthony Colandrea. Colandrea still has some gunslinger tendencies, but he has taken care of the ball enough to lead his team to four victories so far. Slowing down wide receiver Malachi Fields, who is on pace to reach 1,000 yards this season, will be incredibly difficult and Tyler Neville could give the team fits at tight end. Big play threat Trell Harris is having a good season thus far as well, but won’t play meaning it will be a heavy dose of former Tar Heel receiver Andre Greene Jr. The running game will pose issues with Kobe Pace and Xavier Brown both thriving so far this season sharing the carries at running back and Colandrea is a threat to run as well. The biggest issue with the Cavaliers is their offensive line, which has struggled to protect the quarterback and taken 17 of the offense’s 24 penalties.

Defensively, the Cavaliers have their issues that the Tar Heel offense should be able to attack. The strength of the unit is its defensive line with the combination of Chico Bennett Jr. and Kam Butler off the edge and Jahmeer Carter in the middle. Linebacker Kam Robinson has been really solid at MIKE linebacker, but James Jackson has struggled a little beside him. The secondary contains the defense’s best player in Jonas Sanker and Antonio Clary is a very strong complement to him, but the corners have given up a lot of yards so far this season. Jam Jackson is the guy that has struggled the most, having allowed the second-most yards of anyone in the FBS this season.

The special teams unit is a strength of this team. Placekicker Will Bettridge has been great so far this year and Daniel Sparks is one of the better punters in the league through seven games. The returner spots are in solid shape with Chris Tyree at kick returner and Ethan Davies at punt returner.


Team Stats

Tar Heels

Off. PPG: 32.9 (36th)

Off. PYPG: 245.7 (54th)

Off. RYPG: 198.7 (30th)

Off. TYPG: 444.4 (27th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 37.9% (93rd)

Off. 4th Down %: 42.7% (T-105th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 63.0% (68th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 40.0 (T-76th)

Sacks Allowed: 14.0 (T-67th)

Def. PPG: 30.4 (T-107th)

Def. PYPG: 239.6 (99th)

Def. RYPG: 160.3 (88th)

Def. TYPG: 399.9 (T-103rd)

Def. 3rd Down %: 34.0% (T-35th)

Def. 4th Down %: 71.4% (T-122nd)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 64.3% (94th)

Tackles for A Loss: 36.0 (T-90th)

Sacks: 15.0 (T-53rd)

Interceptions: 2 (T-120th)

Turnover Margin: -4 (T-102nd)

Penalties Per Game: 7.7 (T-111th)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 64.1 (101st)

Virginia

Off. PPG: 28.0 (72nd)

Off. PYPG: 262.7 (36th)

Off. RYPG: 159.7 (T-66th)

Off. TYPG: 422.3 (48th)

Off. 3rd Down %: 36.2% (104th)

Off. 4th Down %: 53.3% (T-69th)

Off. Red Zone TD%: 40.0% (130th)

Tackles For A Loss Allowed: 37.0 (T-63rd)

Sacks Allowed: 15.0 (T-79th)

Def. PPG: 25.7 (T-78th)

Def. PYPG: 272.6 (122nd)

Def. RYPG: 133.4 (54th)

Def. TYPG: 406.0 (109th)

Def. 3rd Down %: 38.0% (64th)

Def. 4th Down %: 61.1% (T-97th)

Def. Red Zone TD%: 51.7% (33rd)

Tackles for A Loss: 32.0 (T-108th)

Sacks: 12.0 (T-87th)

Interceptions: 5 (T-70th)

Turnover Margin: +1 (T-59th)

Penalties Per Game: 5.0 (T-22nd)

Penalty Yards Per Game: 43.4 (T-22nd)


Keys to the Game

Score, Score and Score Some More

We were hoping this key that was a staple of last year’s team wouldn’t have to resurface this season, but alas here we sit again. This Tar Heel defense has been a liability ever since the disaster against James Madison and there is no reason to believe that is going to change on Saturday. That means that this offense is going to have to put up a lot of points in every game down the stretch of this season, especially against an offense like Virginia’s. Red zone execution will be extremely important if the Tar Heels want to win this one.

Pressure Colandrea to Create Turnovers

Colandrea has done a good job of protecting the ball this season, but he still has that wild side to him that the Tar Heels need to find a way to bring at. Getting strategic pressure on him and not allowing him easy ways to escape the pocket could lead to some mistakes, ones that the Tar Heel secondary will need to capitalize on.

Win on 1st and 2nd Down

One of the biggest issues that the offense has had in the first seven games of the season is their lack of consistent execution on first and second down. The issues stem from poor play calling from Chip Lindsey and a lack of execution from the offensive line, primarily in the run. Lindsey needs to be willing to lean on his running and quick passing games early and often to set up 3rd & shorts instead of obvious passing downs where defenses can pin their ears back and blitz Criswell.


Injury Report

Tar Heels

OUT- Liam Boyd (lower body), Max Johnson (leg), Bryson Nesbit (wrist), Julien Randolph (undisclosed)

PROB- Aidan Banfield (lower body), Christian Hamilton (lower body), Spencer Triplett (upper body)

Virginia

OUT- Stevie Bracey (undisclosed), Sage Ennis (undisclosed), Jason Hammond (undisclosed), Trell Harris (undisclosed), Noah Hartsoe (undisclosed), Drake Metcalf (undisclosed)

DOUBT- Ty Furnish (ankle)

QUEST- Antonio Clary (knee), James Jackson (foot), Dre Walker (undisclosed)


Projected Starting Lineup

Tar Heels

Offense

QB#12 Jacolby Criswell, Gr.

RB#28 Omarion Hampton, Jr.

WR-X# 5 J.J. Jones, Gr.

WR-SL# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.

WR-Z# 8 Kobe Paysour, Jr.

TE#81 John Copenhaver, Gr.

LT#79 Howard Sampson, So.

LG#68 Aidan Banfield, Fr.

C#63 Zach Greenberg, Gr.

RG#53 Willie Lampkin, Sr.

RT#78 Trevyon Green, So.

Defense

DE#10 Des Evans, Sr.

NT#98 Kevin Hester Jr., Gr.

DT# 5 Jahvaree Ritzie, Sr.

RUSH# 7 Kaimon Rucker, Sr.

WLB#23 Power Echols, Sr.

MLB#17 Amare Campbell, So.

CB#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.

BS# 1 Stick Lane, Gr.

FS# 2 Jakeen Harris, Gr.

CB#29 Marcus Allen, Jr.

STAR#21 Kaleb Cost, So.

Special Teams

PK#98 Noah Burnette, Sr.

P#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KOS#97 Lucas Osada, Fr.

LS#62 Spencer Triplett, Gr.

H#96 Tom Maginness, Jr.

KR# 6 Nate McCollum, Sr.

PR#28 Alijah Huzzie, Gr.

Virginia

Offense

QB#10 Anthony Colandrea, So.

RB# 5 Kobe Pace, Sr.

WR-X# 8 Malachi Fields, Jr.

WR-Z#2 Andre Greene Jr., Jr.

WR-SL# 4 Chris Tyree, Gr.

TE#16 Tyler Neville, Gr.

LT#52 McKale Boley, Jr.

LG#77 Noah Josey, Jr.

C#55 Brian Stevens, Gr.

RG#71 Ugonna Nnanna, Sr.

RT#54 Brian Steen, So.

Defense

DE#82 Kam Butler, Gr.

NT#55 Anthony Britton, RFr.

DT#90 Jahmeer Carter, Gr.

BANDIT#15 Chico Bennett Jr., Gr.

MIKE# 5 Kam Robinson, So.

WILL# 7 James Jackson, Sr.

LCB#29 Kempton Shine, Gr.

SS# 0 Antonio Clary, Sr.

FS#20 Jonas Sanker, Sr.

RCB# 9 Jam Jackson, Jr.

SPUR# 3 Craig Thomas Jr., Gr.

Special Teams

PK#41 Will Bettridge, Jr.

P#38 Daniel Sparks, Sr.

KOS#38 Daniel Sparks, Sr.

LS#81 Payton Bunch, Sr.

H#38 Daniel Sparks, Sr.

KR# 4 Chris Tyree, Gr.

PR#26 Ethan Davies, Jr.


Game Information

Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM ET

Weather: 69℉, 1% chance of rain, N at 5 mph

Betting Line: Virginia -3.5

TV: The CW

Radio: Tar Heel Sports Network


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