Heel Tough Blog: California Preview

@UNC_Basketball

After losing to Stanford on Wednesday night, the Tar Heels will look to respond later today against California to avoid going 0-2 on this West Coast road trip. Carolina’s defense plagued them for a third straight game on Wednesday night, allowing Stanford to score 95 points, om 57% shooting from the field, 57% shooting from behind the arc on 16 makes, the second most makes against UNC in program history. In their last three games, UNC has given up 44 made three pointers, if you extend it out to four games, ACC opponents have combined to make 56 threes, on 43% shooting from behind the arc. Until those numbers change, the results will not. 

Cal enters today’s game with a 13-5 record overall, but they are just 1-4 in ACC games, after losing at home to Duke on Wednesday night. Despite their slow start to conference play, they have been tough to beat at home, where they are 12-2 overall and 4-2 against power conference competition. They do feature four double-digit scorers, led by Dai Dai Ames, who leads the Golden Bears at over 17 points per game. One thing to keep an eye on if this game is close late is the foul line, because Cal ranks inside the top-5 nationally in free throw shooting as a team, where they shoot 79% collectively. 

This is another Quad 1 opportunity for the Tar Heels, who fell to 3-3 in Quad 1 games after the loss to Stanford on Wednesday night. When you look at the rest of their ACC schedule, 9 of their final 14 games register as Quad 1 games, so there’s still time for Carolina to build a strong NCAA Tournament resume that earns them a high seed come Selection Sunday. The only problem is that UNC is 17-35 in Quad 1 games under Hubert Davis, a number that needs to improve, with the pressure on him heating up after the loss on Wednesday night. 

It was a frustrated locker room after the Stanford game earlier this week, with a team eager to get back to playing the way they are capable of playing, after an underhwhelming last two weeks or so. For as well as Carolina is playing offensively, nothing is going to change until they start to defend the way they did in the non-conference portion of the season, which earned them a top-20 defense according to KenPom. Here’s what to watch when the Tar Heels take the floor later today against Cal: 

1. Perimeter Defense: We can sit here and talk about how important it is to take care of the basketball, make free throws, and do all the little things you have to do to win on the road in the ACC. None of that matters if Carolina doesn’t defend the perimeter any better than they have in ACC play. Cal as a team only shoots 35% from behind the arc, but they average roughly 9 makes per game, on 24 attempts. Two of Cal’s double-digit scorers shoot at least 38% or better from behind the arc, so Carolina needs to run Dai Dai Ames and John Camden off the three-point line and locate them in transition to avoid giving them easy looks at the basket. Quite simply, how Carolina defends the perimeter will likely tell the outcome of the game. 

Series History: 

• UNC is 5-1 all-time against Cal. The only win in Berkley game back in 1972, a 64-61 win. Carolina lost to Cla back in 1998, on a neutral court in Oakland. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 35th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 121.4 (35th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 101.9 (51st) 

• California - 84th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 114.1 (99th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 103.9 (72nd) 

NET: 

• North Carolina - 30th. 

• California - 68th. 

TV Info: 

• Today’s game will tip at 4 PM on the ACC Network. 

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