Heel Tough Blog: Florida State Preview

Chris Seward - AP

After an eight-day layoff, the Tar Heels return to action tonight in the Smith Center, as they host Florida State in their ACC opener. The last time Carolina was on the court, they were seen dispatching ECU in the final non-conference game of the season, improving to their first 12-1 start since the 2008-09 national championship season. After a handful of Quad 1 wins in the first two months of the season, ACC play will be about UNC solidifying its NCAA Tournament seed, as opposed to fighting for the right to make the Big Dance, like they were a year ago. 

Florida State brings with them a 7-6 record in their first season under new head coach Luke Loucks. The majority of their wins have come in Quad 4, and their two road games both registered defeats, one to Florida and the other to Dayton. With Loucks’ NBA background, he has installed an NBA style system, prioritizing shooting threes at a high rate. The Seminoles average making over 11 three-pointers per game, while they attempt over 36 shots from the perimeter on a nightly basis. Robert McCray V leads Florida State in scoring, at 13.5 points per game. He is one of four FSU players to average double figures in scoring, for a team that averages 85.0 points per game. 

The Tar Heels have some areas to improve upon during ACC play, as Hubert Davis outlined yesterday at his press conference. They need to get better at the foul line, in addition to limiting opponents’ offensive rebounds. Those are two areas that, if the team doesn’t improve, it will hinder them from maximizing their full potential, which is competing for an ACC championship. 

Tonight is the first of 18 straight ACC games, which is a reduction from the 20 games the league had played the previous handful of seasons. After tonight, Carolina will hit the road for their first-ever road trip to SMU, which kicks off the first of three road venues to places UNC hasn’t played an ACC game at before. But tonight, it’s all about the Seminoles, a team that shouldn’t beat UNC, but has the ability to compete with UNC if they aren’t ready to play. 

1. Defend the 3: Opponents are shooting just 28% from behind the arc, but they haven’t faced a team that shoots the three as this team does. They average making over 11 threes per game, which is 11th best in the sport, and their 36.2 attempts are third most in the sport. When Carolina has played closer games than they should’ve, it has been because the opponent has made a handful of perimeter shots. The only way that Florida State can pull the upset is to be hot from the outside, so Carolina needs to be mindful of that from the beginning. Whenever they grab an offensive rebound, they’ll look to shoot a three-pointer, or even in transition, instead of seeking a lay-up, they will stop and pop a three. Simply put, if the Noles get hot from the outside, they have a path to being competitive; if they don’t, this is a game UNC should win going away. 

2. Free Throws: Had Carolina lost to Ohio State, it would’ve been because of the lack of making foul shots down the stretch. There have been games that UNC has won going away that could’ve been by a larger margin had they made their freebies. Hubert Davis was honest about how they’ve gone about addressing the issues, but it simply comes down to making shots at the end of the day. With as much contact as UNC creates on a night-in, night-out basis, they are going to live at the foul line, even against  ACC competition. They need to start becoming a team we can trust at the foul line, over the next 18 games, and not one we are holding our breath in the final minutes. 

3. Limit Turnovers: The one thing that FSU does well defensively is force turnovers, in large part because of their hand activity. They force 17.5 points per game, which is the 8th most in college basketball, and that’s not counting the number of deflections they register in addition to the steals. With the return of Seth Trimble, Carolina has its full allotment of ball handlers at their disposal, and they need to take care of the basketball in a big way tonight. 

Series History: 

• Carolina is 57-16 all-time against Florida State, having won the last 6 games. In Chapel Hill, UNC is 24-4, including being 21-4 in the Smith Center, with 8 straight wins in the Dean Dome. Since the Seminoles joined the ACC, UNC is 44-15. 

ACC Openers:

• Carolina is 58-14 in ACC openers, and they are 64-8 in their ACC home opener. Under Hubert Davis, the Tar Heels are 56-24 in ACC play. UNC leads the ACC with 771 conference wins. 

KenPom: 

• North Carolina - 22nd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.4 (41st) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 97.2 (19th) 

• Florida State - 110th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 112.1 (117th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 106.1 (115th) 

NET: 

• North Carolina - 16th. 

• Florida State - 128th. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will air on ESPN2, with a 7 PM tip time. 

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