Heel Tough Blog: Kentucky Preview

CBS 17

After having a few days off to regroup after the loss to Michigan State on Thanksgiving night, the Tar Heels return to action tonight, in the ACC/SEC Challenge, as they travel to Kentucky to take on the #18 Wildcats. The loss to Michigan State was the first loss of the season for Carolina, which is 6-1, and is ranked 16th in the AP Poll. Last week was the first time that the Tar Heels played on a neutral floor, and tonight will be the first true road game for Carolina, making their first trip to Lexington since the 2014-15 season. 

Kentucky enters tonight’s contest in desperate need of a win, as both of its losses have come against power conference competition, having fallen to both Louisville and Michigan State. The Wildcats were big spenders this off-season, putting together a roster believed to be worth over $20 million dollars, easily the most expensive roster in college basketball. Now injuries have played a role in their slow start, there is pressure for Big Blue to look like the roster they paid for. With that in mind, 5 Wildcats average double-figures scoring, led by Florida transfer, Denzel Aberdeen, and his 14.0 points per game. For all of their offensive ability, Kentucky has defended at a high level to start the season, as teams are shooting just 36% against them, and they have a top-12 defensive rating according to KenPom. In addition to their defensive prowess, they’ve been dominant on the glass as well, as they are 3rd in defensive rebounds per game, and 4th in total rebounds. Despite their early season struggles, Kentucky is poised to challenge Carolina in a major way tonight. 

The initial 2025-26 NET rankings were released yesterday, and Carolina checked in 26th overall, with a 1-1 mark in Quad 1 games. While fans might feel like it's too early to start talking about Quad 1 games, Carolina has a chance to secure their second Quad 1 win of the season, surpassing last year's total, when the Heels were just 1-11 in such games. The good news for UNC is that the ACC had 8 teams in the top 50 of the NET, as the league looks poised to bounce back, after a handful of down years, so even if Carolina were to lose tonight, there would be more opportunities in the conference season ahead.  

The absence of Seth Trimble was very noticeable in the loss to Michigan State, and while he’s progressing in the right direction, Carolina won’t have their senior leader tonight, in a sneaky big week, with Georgetown set to visit Chapel Hill on Sunday. With Kentucky struggling against power conference competition, there is pressure on the Wildcats to respond, but make no mistake, if Carolina plays to the level of their talent, they are more than capable of winning this game. 

1. Defend the 3: One of the things Kentucky does as well as anyone in the country is not only take the three-point shot, but make the three-point shot, something Carolina has to be prepared for. When they run their 5-out offense, every player on the floor will be capable of making outside shots, so Carolina needs to be mindful of that. And not only do they take a lot of perimeter shots, but they also make a lot of them, headlined by Colin Chandler and his 49% three-point shooting. When you play a team like Kentucky, you have to accept the fact that they are going to make their share of perimeter shots, but you can’t allow them to have one of those nights where they make 14-15 threes and overwhelm you from behind the arc. 

2. Limit Live-Ball Turnovers: In the loss to Michigan State, you would’ve thought turnovers played a role, but Carolina committed just six turnovers, and they’ll need to replicate that performance. Any kind of turnover is going to be costly, but they can’t afford to turn it over in the open floor, allowing the Wildcats to get layups, dunks, or even worse, transition threes. This is going to be a high-possession game, given the pace that both teams desire to play at, but they still can’t afford to commit anymore than 8-10 turnovers, to give themselves a shot on the road in a hostile environment.  

3. Control the Glass: This is the best rebounding team that Carolina has played this season on paper, and after being beaten up by Michigan State, Carolina needs to respond. It’s almost a given at this point that Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar are going to hit the boards, but they’ll need that third person to impact the game. Jarin Stevenson has big games on the glass as a starter, and Jonathan Powell has contributed off the bench at times. Both of them impacting the game in that department would go a long way to Carolina’s chances against one of the best defensive rebounding teams UNC has played so far this season. 

Series History:

• Carolina is 25-18 all-time against Kentucky, but they are only 6-8 in Lexington, and 2-5 in Rupp Arena. The 25 wins against the Wildcats are tied with Indiana for the most against UK by a non-SEC opponent. 

KenPom: 

• North Carolina - 31st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.8 (45th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (35th) 

• Kentucky - 11th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 121.8 (17th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 94.8 (12th) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 26th. 

• Kentucky - 15th. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will start at 9:30 on ESPN. 

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