Heel Tough Blog: Michigan State Preview (Fort Myers Tip-Off)
- Joshua Marlow
- 3 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Thanksgiving may be a football holiday, but college basketball takes center stage today, as two of the most iconic programs in the sport, North Carolina and Michigan State, are prepared to do battle in Fort Myers, Florida, later this afternoon. Both teams are 6-0 and are ranked inside the AP Top 20, including Carolina, which is #16, in the poll. They improved to 6-0 on Tuesday night, with an 85-70 win over St. Bonaventure, behind a career night from Henri Veesaar, and a fourth straight double-double from sensational freshman Caleb Wilson. That 6-0 start is the first 6-0 start since the 2016-17 season, when Carolina would start 7-0, on their way to winning the national championship. The Tar Heels will look to match that start this afternoon.
The Spartans have raced out to a fast start, behind one of the best guards in the country, Jeremy Fears Jr, combined with dominant frontcourt play, headlined by Jaxson Kohler. This will be the third-ranked opponent that Michigan State has already played this season, owning wins over #14 Arkansas and #12 Kentucky. You want to know how good Fears is? He’s averaging a double-double as a point guard, with points and assists, something you rarely see at the college level. Kohler is nearly averaging a double-double as well, while he leads Michigan State in scoring at over 15 points per game. Behind the pass happy Fears, Michigan State ranks inside the top 5 nationally in assists per game at over 21 per contest. Expect that ball movement to challenge a stingy UNC defense over the span of 40 minutes in this game.
That 7-0 start back in the 2017 national championship season was also the last time that Carolina exited a Thanksgiving event with an unblemished record, a sign of how Carolina has struggled in marquee events recently. This year's event is different, as the matchups were predetermined, unlike when you play in Maui or the Battle 4 Atlantis, which feature a bracket, but nonetheless, this is a big opportunity for this team, in a stretch of games that will help determine expectations moving forward. After today, Carolina travels to take on Kentucky in the ACC/SEC Challenge next week, followed by a home date with Georgetown, a program primed to return to the NCAA Tournament under Ed Cooley. A win over Michigan State would give Carolina their second win over a ranked opponent already this season, and would mean it has a better NCAA Tournament resume than it did last year, when it was the last team in the field.
Hubert Davis lost to Tom Izzo last year in Maui, after beating him in the NCAA Tournament the previous year. Today could be the final matchup between the two, with Izzo likely headed to retirement at the end of the season. Here’s the keys to Carolina to win the rubber match between the two storied programs:
Limit First Half Turnovers: Roy Williams always said everything looks better when the ball goes in the basket, and while he’s right, that statement could be altered for this team. As for the 2025-26 Tar Heels, everything looks better when they don’t turn it over, especially in the first half. On Tuesday, Carolina turned it over 11 times in the first 20 minutes, which is why they only led 35-33 at the break. In the second half, they turned it over twice and outscored the Bonnies 50-37. That wasn’t the first time Carolina has had double-digit turnovers in the first half; that was followed up by better ball security in the second half, allowing them to run away with the game. But Michigan State thrives off turnovers, getting out in transitions for layups, Coen Carr highlight dunks, or threes. A double-digit turnover first half might result in a double-digit deficit too big to overcome.
Win the Battle of the Guards: This game will have an NCAA Tournament type feel to it, with two big-time programs meeting on a neutral floor, meaning guard play will likely determine the outcome. There’s no denying that Fears is the best guard in this game, but Carolina can’t let him dominate like he’s capable of doing. Kyan Evans needs to build off his 4-5 shooting night against the Bonnies, while limiting his fouls and turnovers. Derek Dixon needs to be the steady force he’s been off the bench so far, when he subs in for Evans, or when they share the backcourt together. Carolina is going to have their hands full with Michigan State’s guards, but this is what you sign up for when you play at North Carolina, and they need to meet the challenge head-on.
Make the Ball Stick: With Michigan State’s ability to share the basketball, it means that they make defenses rotate, chase, and leave the floor unbalanced, creating easy driving lanes or uncontested perimeter shots. But Sparty hasn’t seen a team as big and as long as Carolina, and that needs to be a factor defensively. Carolina’s defense is among the nation’s best in terms of field goal percentage because they keep the ball in front of them and contests nearly every shot. They need to make Michigan State dribble more than they pass. Carolina has the size advantage at nearly every position, and that size needs to take away passing lanes and not allow the ball to move from inside-out, side to side, etc.
Series History:
Carolina is 13-5 all-time against Michigan State, including being 9-3 on a neutral floor. This is the 13th different city to host the two programs, including St. Louis, where Carolina won during the 2005 Final Four, and Detroit, where Carolina beat Michigan State for the national championship in 2009.
KenPom:
North Carolina - 22nd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.9 (37th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.5 (22nd)
Michigan State - 17th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.5 (49th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 93.8 (8th)
TV Info:
Today’s game will tip at 4:30 PM on FOX.
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