Heel Tough Blog: NC State Preview

@UNC_Basketball

It’s game day for Carolina Basketball, as they are set for the first of two road games this week, with a trip to Raleigh tonight, followed by a road game at Syracuse on Saturday. Carolina won on Saturday at home against Pittsburgh, 79-65, in a game that UNC was without Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. In the absence of their top two scorers and rebounders, Carolina had four starters score in double figures, led by Seth Trimble and Jarin Stevenson, on the way to the comfortable win. With or without Veesaar, Carolina will need to play as close to the level that they played on Saturday if they want to continue their success against the Wolfpack. 

It’s been a busy couple of days around the Carolina Basketball program, starting with the status of Henri Veesaar, who is officially questionable for tonight’s game. After going 1-1 last week, Carolina fell to 16th in the AP Poll after being on the verge of being ranked inside the top 10. And then earlier today, Carolina got a win off the court, landing five-star combo-guard Dylan Mingo, a top-10 player in the 2026 recruiting class, who chose UNC over Penn State, where his brother plays, Baylor, Washington, and others. 

State enters tonight’s game with a healthy record of 18-8, but has lost back-to-back games, to Louisville on the road, and to Miami at home, respectively. The loss to Miami was the worst of the two losses, as they led by 7 with 1:07 left to play, but Miami closed the game on an 8-0 run. run, helped with State turning the ball over against the full-court press, missing free throws, and fouling a three-point shooter. With that in mind, you know that Will Wade will have his team’s full attention ahead of their most important game of the regular season. State is an offensive juggernaut that features five players averaging double figures, led by the preseason ACC Player of the Year Darrion Williams. The strength of the Wolfpack is their ability to shoot from the outside, where as a team they shoot 39%, which is top-10 in all of college basketball. 

For all of Hubert Davis’s struggles against Duke, he has enjoyed success against NC State, as he’s 7-2 against the Wolfpack. The folks over in Raleigh believe they are finally on equal footing with Carolina, in terms of the level of coach they have sitting on the bench, as Will Wade will look to make his mark in first ever UNC game. Here’s how Carolina can leave Will Wade and the Wolfpack heartbroken once again, and emerge from the Lenovo Center victorious: 

1. Defend the Perimeter: NC State is going to go as far as their jump shooting takes them, as Will Wade admitted after the loss to Miami. The problem is that when they are on, they have proven they can play with and beat just about anyone in the ACC. They shoot nearly 40% from behind the arc, and UNC is allowing ACC opponents to shoot 40% from deep in conference play, a number they can’t allow tonight if they want to win. Virtually every player is capable of taking and making a three, so Carolina needs to be mindful of that, run State off the three-point line, and be ready to close out hard and contest outside shots. If State is able to shoot a high percentage and a high number of makes, that might spell doom for a Carolina team that won’t be at full strength tonight, with Caleb Wilson being sidelined, and Henri Veesaar’s status still unknown.  

2. Pound the Glass: The glaring weakness of the Wolfpack is their inability to keep teams off the glass, and UNC needs to exploit that in a major way tonight. Against Pitt, NC State allowed 26 offensive rebounds, despite winning. In their loss to Miami on Saturday, they gave up 20 offensive rebounds and were handed a last-second loss at home. With Stevenson and Zayden High both poised to play big minutes, Carolina will still feature three players at least 6-10 on the court for the majority of the game. This isn’t a vintage UNC rebounding team, but they need to rebound the ball as their life depends on it, to create even more scoring chances, in a game that might be a race to 80. 

3. Limit Pick-Six Turnovers: Outside of the game at Kentucky and the regular season finale at Duke, this will be the toughest environment UNC will play in all year long. With that in mind, they can’t afford to give the ball away, which leads to easy layups, dunks, or transition threes, for that arena to get even louder than it already will be from the moment the game begins. This is where Seth Trimble and Derek Dixon both have to be at their best when looking to make a pass against the pressure State will apply on the basketball. How the UNC bigs handle double teams will be important as well, especially without Caleb Wilson, who has improved in that category as the season has progressed before getting injured. This team is on pace to set the record for the fewest turnovers committed per game, and that needs to travel with them on the bus to Raleigh. 

Series History: 

• The Tar Heels are 168-81 all-time against NC State, with an impressive road record of 70-48, including being 20-6 in the Lenovo Center. The 168 wins are the most against a single program in UNC history. Carolina has won 40 of the last 47, including being 7-2 under Hubert Davis. With this being the only regular-season matchup of the season, it marks the first time since 1919 that NC State won’t visit Chapel Hill. 

KenPom: 

• North Carolina - 28th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.3 (24th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (44th) 

• NC State - 31st overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.7 (21st) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (47th) 

NET: 

• North Carolina - 25th. 

• NC State - 29th. 

TV Info:

• Tonight’s game will tip at 7 PM on ESPN. 

The Four Corners Podcast: