Heel Tough Blog: SMU Preview

Sports Illustrated

For the first time in ACC play, and just the second time this season, the Tar Heels hit the road, as they are set to take on SMU later this afternoon at the Moody Center. Carolina’s lone road game prior to today was a win at Kentucky back in the first week of December in the annual ACC/SEC Challenge, which gave confidence to a team, playing without Seth Trimble at the time. The Tar Heels opened conference play earlier this week, with a 79-66 win over Florida State, behind arguably Caleb Wilson’s most complete game as a freshman, combined with another double-double for Henri Veesaar, and Seth Trimble’s highest scoring game of the season so far. The win improved Carolina’s record to 13-1, their best start since the 2008-09 national championship season. 

After failing to make the NCAA Tournament last year, Andy Edfield has his SMU Mustangs positioned to make the Big Dance for the first time since joining the ACC. The Mustangs are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, averaging over 91 points per game, behind five double-digit scorers. Veteran guard Boopie Miller leads SMU in scoring, at over 19 points per game, to go along with his 7 assists per game average. The secret behind SMU’s high-flying offense is their ability to convert on two-point baskets, where they average making 25.0 per game, which is 5th best in the country. Last year, their schedule played a part in terms of missing the NCAA Tournament, but they are 3-2 against power conference competition so far, with wins over Butler, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. 

The benefit of the ACC being an improved league this year is that there are more opportunities to build a legitimate resume for the NCAA Tournament, and even though it’s just the first week of January, it’s never too early to be talking about Selection Sunday. Today’s game against SMU qualifies as a Quad 1 game, and if Carolina were to emerge with a win, that would be their fourth Quad 1 win, which would tie them for the most in the sport, adding belief that this is a serious contender to get to the Final Four and cut down the nets. On the flip side, if UNC were to lose, a loss to SMU wouldn’t be as detrimental as it would’ve been a year ago, when teams didn’t have the NET numbers they have this year, and the losses weren’t in the first two quadrants. 

This is the first time UNC has played at SMU since they joined the ACC, and the first time overall since 1986. A win today would only build confidence and momentum before having a week off in between games. Here’s how they can improve to 14-1 and 2-0 in the ACC. 

1. Protect the Paint: SMU’s offense is powered by their ability to make shots inside the three-point line, where they make 25 two-point field goals, a number that ranks inside the top 5 nationally in college basketball. And with the role analytics now plays in college basketball, I can assure you they aren’t shooting contested mid-range jumpshots; instead, they are getting downhill and living in the painted area. Carolina has struggled at times to contain the dribble drive, but that can’t be the case today, even with shot blockers like Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar manning the back line of the defense. Boopie Miller will look to touch the paint with his ability to penetrate, which means we should see a lot of Seth Trimble on him in this game, as he’s the best perimeter defender on the roster. This can’t be a game where UNC allows 40 or more points in the paint, because if that happens, the rest of the defense will collapse, leaving open shooters from the perimeter, allowing this offense to function at a level that will be hard to stop on the road. 

2. Backcourt Play: Now that we are in conference play, it’s imperative that Seth Trimble gets consistent help in the form of either Kyan Evans or Derek Dixon. Evans scored 15 points in the win over Florida State and shot 5-12 from behind the arc. If that type of production can start to become more consistent, it’ll be a game-changer for this team. Guard play is the biggest determining factor once we get to conference tournament action and the NCAA Tournament, but it’s also the biggest factor in winning or losing on the road as well in league play. Carolina knows what it has in both Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, along with Seth Trimble, but they need a consistent fourth scorer to emerge, to maximize their full potential. Let’s see if Kyan Evans is ready to build off his best scoring output in almost two months, later today. 

3. Special Teams: In games like this, whoever wins the secondary stats usually has the upper hand on the scoreboard. The other night against FSU, Carolina dominated the secondary stats like points at the foul line, points off turnovers, transition points, and points in the paint. They’ll need that to carry over into today’s game, most notably converting at the foul line, and not giving away the ball, leading to points for SMU. 

Series History:

• Carolina is 3-1 all-time against SMU, and 1-0 as conference opponents. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 23rd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 118.4 (46th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 96.4 (18th) 

• SMU - 39th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 120.7 (27th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 102.3 (71st) 

NET: 

• North Carolina - 18th. 

• SMU - 28yh. 

TV Info:

• Today’s game will tip at 2:15 on The CW network. 

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