Heel Tough Blog: Stanford Preview

ESPN

For the first time since they joined the ACC, the Tar Heels have to travel to California to take on both Stanford and California, in a rare West Coast road trip during conference play, which is a result of conference expansion. Last year, Carolina hosted ACC newcomers, SMU, Stanford, and Cal, with return trips taking place this year, and will be completed by the end of the week. The last time we saw the Tar Heels, they held on to beat Wake Forest, 87-84, to improve to 14-2 on the year, and 2-1 in league play. UNC had built a 15-point lead in the second half before holding off a ferocious comeback from the Demon Deacons, highlighted by poor perimeter defense from Carolina. 

After a strong non-conference season, Stanford is looking to build an NCAA Tournament resume, and a win over UNC would start that conversation. They enter tonight’s game with a 13-4 record and are 2-2 in the ACC. While Caleb Wilson is the best freshman in this game, the Cardinal have a freshman that’s worth talking about as well, in Ebuka Okorie, who leads them in scoring at over 22 points per game, on 43% shooting. He is one of three double-digit scorers for Stanford, a team that excels more so on the defensive end of the floor, especially on the perimeter, where they rank inside the top 20 nationally, in opponent three-point field goal makes (5.9), and attempts (18.1). More importantly, Stanford enters tonight’s contest ranked 69th in the NET, making this a Quad 1 game for UNC, which is 3-2 in Quad 1 games so far this season. 

When the Tar Heels went West last year for the Maui Invitational, they came back a different team, and they never found their footing, on their way to a disappointing season. While the competition won’t be the same, UNC is hoping to avoid that during this West Coast road trip, where they will be tested by both Stanford and California. In the win over Wake Forest, both Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar posted big scoring numbers, but weren’t featured in the offense for the majority of the second half, despite Wilson claiming that Wake didn’t do anything different to limit his impact offensively. That needs to be corrected tomorrow night, as Stanford lacks the size to handle the best frontcourt duo in the country. 

With 15 ACC games left to play, 10 of them qualify as Quad 1 games as of right now, giving Carolina to build a strong resume come Selection Sunday. The Tar Heels are a respectable 3-2 in Quad 1 games so far, but will need to build to that if they want to be a high seed for the NCAA Tournament. Here’s how Carolina can improve their Quad 1 record and pick up their second road win of the season: 

1. Guard Okorie: In Carolina’s last two games, they have struggled to guard the opponent’s best player, allowing 27 points to SMU’s Boopie Miller and 28 points to Wake Forest’s Juke Harris. If UNC isn’t careful, Ebuka Okorie could have one of those games that could fuel an upset of Carolina. You know Trimvle is going to draw the assignment for the majority of the game, but it will need to be a total team effort, using multiple defenders to wear him down over the game. While he doesn’t shoot it well from the outside, UNC needs to take away quality looks from the perimeter, meaning their on-ball defense, and pick and roll defense, needs to be tighter than it was the other night. Okorie is going to make some shots, but Carolina can’t allow him to have a career night. 

2. Perimeter Shooting: In their last two games, Carolina has shot well enough from the outside to win both games, but they wasted a great shooting night at SMU in a road loss. In the win over Wake Forest, UNC made 9 threes, and when they do that, they are a tough basketball team to beat. The numbers suggest they won’t get to that total, as Stanford does as good a job as any team in the ACC in terms of running teams off the three-point line and defending the perimeter, even when teams are able to get a quality look. What Carolina needs to do is ensure that the right guys are taking shots from the outside, starting with Henri Veesaar, followed by Jonathan Powell. 

3. Make Free Throws: There hasn’t been a game where Carolina’s poor free-throw shooting has lost them a game, but it’s going to happen at some point. UNC was 20/30 on Saturday, and just 13-20 in the second half, leaving points at the foul line, while the Deom Deacons made their comeback. For as good as Stanford defends the perimeter, they struggled to defend the interior, which means Carolina needs to pound the ball inside and get them into foul trouble. The foul shot is the most efficient play in basketball, and Carolina hasn’t been as efficient as they should be in that area, and it’s not just the guards missing the freebies; so are the guards, including Seth Trimble. 

Series History: 

• Carolina is 13-1 all-time against Stanford, but lost the only meeting as ACC opponents last year in Chapel Hill. UNC is 2-0 in Maples Pavilion, with wins coming in 1983 and 2017. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 33rd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 119.8 (42nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 99.6 (31st) 

• Stanford - 78th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 112.9 (106th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 101.8 (57th) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 22nd. 

• Stanford - 69th. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will air on the ACC Network, with the tip set for 9 PM. 

The Four Corners Podcast: