Heel Tough Blog: Stanford Recap

CBS 17

Despite leading for 38 minutes last night, the Tar Heels lost at Stanford, 95-90, to fall to 14-3 on the season, and 2-2 in the ACC, with both losses coming away from Chapel Hill. Carolina built a double-digit lead in both the first and the second half, but it didn’t matter, as sensational Ebuka Okorie had arguably his best game of his young college career, scoring 36 points and handing out 9 assists. Stanford shot 57% from the field, including 57% from behind the arc, on 16 makes, as UNC has allowed opponents to make 44 threes in their last three games. Even when Carolina got the ball out of Okorie’s hands, Stanford had two players step up and make shots, most notably Ryan Agarwal, and his 20 points on 7-11 shooting, and Jeremy Dent-Smith, who also scored 20 points on 6-7 shooting from the outside. The Cardinal scored on 58% of their possessions last night, and averaged 1.377 points per possession, on their way to the upset over Carolina. 

The loss was the latest example of UNC wasting big games from Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, who combined to produce 52 points, 15 rebounds, on 20-28 shooting, including going a perfect 12-12 in the second half. In both of Carolina’s road losses, they’ve scored 83 points or more, but have come up short due to poor defense. It’s not often you see UNC lose a game when they shoot 58% from the field, 38% from behind the arc, outrebound the opponent by 10, and outscore the opponent by 10 in the paint, but that’s exactly what happened last night. 

While Carolina never had a double-digit lead to blow at SMU, they’ve now blown double-digit leads in back-to-back games. They were up 15 in the second half in the narrow win over Wake Forest on Saturday, and last night they blew a 12-point lead two different times, once in the first half, and another time in the second half. Turnovers doomed Carolina in the final minutes of last night’s loss, as UNC turned it over four times in the final 5 minutes, where they only scored two field goals. 

Sure, last night may have qualified as a Quad 1 loss, and only one team has gone 2-0 on the West Coast road trip since Stanford joined the ACC, but last night was the second straight loss to the Cardinal since they joined the league, and that shouldn’t happen. The Tar Heels may ben 14-3, and a modest 2-2 in the league, but after a fourth straight game, where they haven’t played to their standard, it appears that the season is hanging in the balance, and Hubert Davis doesn’t have many answers. 

1. Perimeter Defense: After last night’s three-point barrage, UNC has now given up 44 made threes in its last four games, with both SMU and Stanford shooting over 50% from behind the arc. For whatever reason, UNC continues to switch everything on the perimeter, putting themselves in bad positions defensively, combined with poor communication, lack of rotation, leading to open shots from behind the arc. In ACC play, teams are shooting 43% against UNC from the outside, a staggering number considering how well UNC defended the perimeter in the non-conference portion of the season. Until Carolina makes changes, teams are going to continue to attack them from the outside, and until Carolina improves in that area specifically, they’ll either continue to win close or get beaten altogether. 

2. PG Outclased: There’s no denying that UNC has a point guard issue, and for the third straight game, they’ve been outclassed by the opponent. First, it was Boopie Miller of SMU, then it was Nate Calmese of Wake Forest, and last night it was Ebuka Okorie of Stanford, who scored 36 points and handed out 9 assists, leading Stanford to the upset. As for Carolina? Kyan Evans scored 3 points, on 1-5 shooting, and committed a costly turnover late. Derek Dixon failed to score in 11 minutes. Seth Trimble handled the ball last night and scored 13 points, but was beaten to his spot way too many times defensively, where he hasn’t been the same player since returning from injury. We haven’t seen UNC struggle to get quality point guard play since the 2019-20 season, which was hindered by a Cole Anthony injury, but given how much UNC demands from that position, it’s not a surprise to see the team struggling as they have since the start of ACC play. 

3. Isolation Basketball: Even with the limited point guard production, Carolina has been able to share the basketball collectively, but that wasn’t the case last night. UNC converted on 32 made shots, but only 7 of them were assisted, meaning that less than 5% of their baskets were assisted upon. 

4. Rotation: Carolina’s rotation is completely out of whack, for the fourth time in five years under Hubert Davis. While every starter played at least 26 minutes last night, only Luka Bogavac (19) and Derek Dixon (11) played double-digit minutes off the bench. Jonathan Powell, arguably the best shooter on the team, played only 3 minutes last night, and Jaydon Young, who scored 12 points in 20 minutes against Wake Forest, only played 6. With a $14 million dollar roster taking the floor every night, talent and depth aren’t an issue, but the lack of a defined rotation is a direct reflection of Hubert Davis’s inability to maximize the talent he was given. 

5. Free Throws: It was only a matter of time before UNC’s struggles at the foul line cost them a game, and that’s what happened last night, as Carolina left 12 points at the foul line, after going 20-32 from the charity stripe. Every starter that attempted a free throw missed at least two, as they combined to go 16/28 from the foul line, the same percentage that Stanford shot from behind the three-point line. 

6. Hot Seat: After last night’s loss, the frustration with Hubert Davis is starting to rise, even with the team owning a 14-3 record. After the latest loss in a Quad 1 setting, the Tar Heels are just 17-35 in Quad 1 games under Hubert Davis, a number that should be reversed at a place like North Carolina. With it looking less and less likely that UNC is going to compete for a regular-season conference championship, Hubert Davis is going to need a big March to feel good about his job security at the end of the season, or else UNC could be forced to make multiple decisions they don’t want to make. 

Up Next: Carolina is back in action on Saturday against California, with tip set for 4 PM on the ACC Network.