Heel Tough Blog: Stock Report- Week 5

Bob Donnan- Imagn Images

The Tar Heels are in the midst of their first bye week of the season as they look to swing this season back in the right direction after a rough start to the season. With us a third of the way through the season, now is the perfect time to look at the stock report for the team. Here’s a look at how things are trending across the board as Clemson looms this Saturday.

⬇Bill Belichick

Belichick was expected to come in and completely change the culture of Tar Heel football, but that simply has not happened yet. The roster build clearly didn’t go well in the offseason, albeit they got a late start because of how late he was hired, but Belichick and Michael Lombardi have to face the fact that this roster lacks talent. The bigger concern is how unprepared the Tar Heels have looked for the first two games of the season against power conference competition and how poor this team has looked fundamentally in both of those games. The team missed 19 tackles in the opener and had those same issues against UCF despite reportedly tackling more during spring and fall camp. Belichick has also been clearly outcoached in those two power conference matchups, something we didn’t expect to see because of the coaching prowess that he brought from his time in the NFL. Maybe we had too high of expectations for this opening stretch of the season, but it’s clear that Belichick isn’t off to a good start.

⬇Freddie Kitchens

Another reason that Belichick could be criticized for this start to the season is because of the fact that he decided to elevate Kitchens to the offensive coordinator role this offseason. The Tar Heels currently boast one of the country's worst offenses, ranking 134th in the country in total offense per game (263.5), 124th in passing offense per game (150.0) and 106th in points per game (21.0). What is supposed to be the strength of this unit, the rushing game, still ranks 113th in the country (113.5). The offense has been incredibly bland and unimaginative through the first four games of the season and has never really adjusted to the quarterback that was leading the way the majority of the time in Gio Lopez. The hope is that Max Johnson, who seems to fit the system a little better, will be able to move the football more efficiently and allow Kitchens to open things up a little bit more than in these first four games. That is far from a guarantee, though.

⬇Gio Lopez

Kitchens can get significant blame for not adjusting to his quarterback, but Lopez simply hasn’t been good and it is holding this offense back. So far this season, he has completed 62.7% of his passes for 430 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions, while running for just 69 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries. In the two games against power conference opponents, he has completed 62.5% of his passes for just 156 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions and one fumble, numbers that simply aren’t good enough for this offense to succeed. The injury that he suffered in the UCF game isn’t season-ending but it should be a situation where he only returns if Max Johnson struggles that badly in his place.

⬇Offensive Line

The offensive line was the area of the team that we felt they addressed the most this offseason in the portal, but it’s a group that is having its issues. The run blocking has been an issue in each of the four games, with no lineman grading out better than a 67.2 and only one starter grading out with a 60.0 or better. Of the 491 rushing yards that the Tar Heels have recorded this season, 352 of them have come after the tackle. The blocking simply has to be better if this team wants to be more efficient, especially in the system that Kitchens wants to run. In pass protection, the unit has been better, but they will have to protect better than they did against UCF once Max Johnson entered the game.

⬇Aidan Banfield

The guy who has struggled the most so far this year along that offensive line is Banfield. In run blocking, he has graded out with just a 58.3, including a 49.7 in blocking situations on run downs, both marks that were the lowest of any starter on the roster. In pass protection, he has had his issues as well, allowing one sack and five total quarterback pressures in the first four games, leading to his replacement against UCF. With the way that he is playing currently, it would make sense if the team stuck with Will O’Steen for the time being at left guard.

⬇Pass Rush

With the departure of Kaimon Rucker this offseason, we knew the Tar Heels were going to take a step back as a pass-rushing unit, but no one was expecting as drastic a drop-off as we have seen so far this season. A big issue for this unit is that Pryce Yates has yet to play a game for the team, but that doesn’t take the heat off the other defensive linemen on this team. The defensive line has produced just three sacks and 43 total pressures in the first four games of the season, including just one sack and 16 total pressures in the two games against power conference opponents. This group has to do a better job of shedding blocks and winning 1-on-1 matchups up front to get pressure on the quarterback or this pass defense will continue to struggle.

⬇Smith Vilbert

One guy who has had issues along that defensive front all season long has been Vilbert. So far this season, he has just five total tackles, two tackles for loss and five quarterback pressures and has missed three total tackles. In the last three games, Vilbert has only produced two pressures, a number that demonstrates perfectly how ineffective he’s been at times this season. The hope is that Yates can return and take his spot sooner rather than later.

⬇Marcus Allen

Allen recovered a bit from the season-opening performance against TCU, but it's hard to forget what happened on that disappointing Monday night. He was torched for 135 yards and a touchdown on nine catches, missed four tackles and allowed a 155.8 quarterback rating in the blowout loss to TCU. He was also picked on a little bit in the game against UCF, as well, allowing three catches for 32 yards and a 111.1 quarterback rating. The hope is that he can find a way to show more resistance in conference play.

⬇Kaleb Cost

Cost is another guy in the secondary who has been picked on so far early this season. In 93 coverage snaps, Cost has allowed 12 of his 16 targets to be caught for 123 yards and a touchdown while being called for four penalties. He hasn’t been as bad as he was a year ago, but there is still plenty of room for improvement in the final eight or nine games of the season.

⬆Demon June

When we get to the positives, we have to start with June. After not playing in the season opener on offense, June has taken over as RB1 after an impressive stretch of games where his role has been increasing each week. So far this season, he has run for 250 yards and a touchdown on just 33 carries, numbers that are made even more impressive considering how poor the blocking has been in front of him. Expect him to continue to get better as the season goes along.

⬆Jordan Shipp

The quarterback play has held back this wide receiver group, but it’s easy to see that the best of the group has been Shipp. In just 107 pass snaps this season, he has caught 13 of his 17 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns, all of which lead the team at this point of the season. If he can get more competent play from the quarterback spot, he is positioned well to make a big impact in the final eight or nine games of the season.

⬆Thaddeus Dixon

The secondary has had its fair share of issues so far this season, but Dixon has been everything that he was expected to be. In 125 coverage reps, the senior corner has allowed just six of his 13 targets to be caught for 64 yards to go along with a team-high three pass breakups. If he continues to play this way, he’ll have a chance to be one of the few players off of this roster that ends up on an NFL roster.

⬆Xavier Lewis

Lewis has only played limited snaps in the first four games this season, but when he has been on the field, he has been effective. So far, he grades out as the best player on the defensive side of the ball according to PFF with a 81.8 overall grade and is one of just two players with at least one pressure in every game. Since he seems to have an impact on every game that he plays in, his role needs to be expanded the rest of the season.

⬆Tom Maginness

Maginness joins Shipp as one of the few holdovers that have improved this season under the direction of Belichick. So far this season, he has averaged 40.5 yards per attempt and, more importantly, 40.2 net yards per attempt as just four of his punts have been returned for a grand total of five yards. This is progress and is much needed in a season where the team is relatively inept offensively.