Heel Tough Blog: California Recap

@UNCMBBStats

Looking to bounce back after a midweek loss to Stanford, the Tar Heels suffered their second straight defeat, and their third loss in four games, with an 84-78 loss to California, to fall to 14-4 on the season, 2-3 in the ACC, and 3-4 in Quad 1 games. Carolina, which trailed 54-37 at the half and by as much as 20 in the second half, did make it a two-possession game late in the second half, but poor shot selection denied them a chance at completing the comeback, sending UNC to a second straight defeat. The 54 first half points are the most allowed in an ACC game since 2008, as UNC allowed the Golden Bears to shoot 10-16 from the outside, adding to their perimeter defensive woes. For the game, Cal shot 50% from the field, 54% from behind the arc, on 14 makes, which was too much for UNC to overcome on the road, in a game where they shot just 46% from the field, 33% from deep, and left 11 points at the foul line. Caleb Wilson led UNC in scoring once again, with 17 points, on 6-12 shooting, but outside of his last-second three at the end of the game, he didn’t take a single shot over the final 10:19 of the game. Henri Veesaar and Derek Dixon, who made their first start, both added 14, along with Seth Trimble’s 12, as the startling lineup carried the scoring production, for the most part. 

Cal led the entire game, after running out to a 10-3 lead in the game's opening minutes, and never looked back. For a team that has struggled in ACC play, they were 1-4 entering today’s game, they were the better team on both ends of the floor, and executed their game plan in a way that left UNC disheveled for most of the game. Today’s game was a Quad 1 game for both teams, and with the loss, UNC is now 3-4 this year in Quad 1 opportunities, and just 17-36 all-time under Hubert Davis.   

After the way that UNC lost to Stanford, Hubert Davis had to make changes, and to his credit, he did try different elements in the game. He benched Kyan Evans in favor of Derek Dixon, and Dixon responded, scoring 14 points on 5-11 shooting, including going 4-8 from behind the arc. He played the most zone in any game so far this season in the first half, but that didn’t work, as Cal scored 54 points, made 10 threes, and shot 56% from the field. Still, those adjustments came a game too late, and he was a step behind Cal’s Mark Madsen, who secured his most significant win as the Golden Bears head coach. In the final 9 minutes, Carolina picked up their pressure and extended their defense, which isn’t sustainable every game for 40 minutes, but proved that this plays its best defense when they are attacking the opponent, instead of settling into the halfcourt. 

Only Wake Forest (last year) and Duke (this week) have gone 2-0 on the West Coast swing, but nobody could’ve seen a 0-2 coming this time a week ago. The back-to-back losses have now put Carolina’s outlook in the ACC in question, after many believed they were primed to compete with Duke for an ACC regular-season title. It also calls into question if Hubert Davis is the right man to lead the program, after entering the season with pressure to deliver results, his seat is as hot as it’s ever been, which didn’t seem possible after a 12-1 start to the season. 

1. Defensive Struggles Continue: Carolina’s free fall defensively carried over into the first 30 minutes of the Cal loss, before they found some life, some energy, and some toughness in the final 10 minutes. Still, Cal was able to shoot 50% from the field and 54% from behind the arc, on 14 makes, making it the fourth straight game that UNC has allowed 14 or more made threes against them. In their last four games, UNC opponents are shooting 53% from the field and 50% from behind the arc against them. Until those numbers change, the results will not. 

2. Late Game Execution: Still, with all the struggles, Carolina trailed by six with 2:30 left to play, and four with 1:24, but failed to get a score, in large part due to poor shot selection from Seth Trimble, who forced things in a one-on-one situation that he didn’t have to. Caleb Wilson led UNC in scoring with 17 points, but took only one shot over the final 10:19 of the game. That was after only taking two shots in the first 8 minutes of the game, when Carolina found themselves down by double digits. 

3. New Lineup: It took 17 games, and a lot of missed shots, and poor play, but Hubert Davis finally moved Kyan Evans to the bench in favor of Derek Dixon, who scored 14 points, on 5-11 shooting. Evans only played 10 minutes, and that should be the maximum he plays moving forward. With that in mind, Hubert still needs to maximize the minutes of Joanthan Powell and Jaydon Young, as Powell only played 11 minutes, with Young playing 14. There needs to be more lineups with three guards on the floor, to add more shooting, an extra ball handler, as well as another defender that can extend pressure on the perimeter. But the fact that we are in the middle of January, and Hubert Davis doesn’t have a defined rotation, is a reflection on him and his staff’s inability to maximize the talent on the current roster. 

4. Missed Free Throws: Had UNC made their foul shots, they would’ve been in the game in ways that they weren’t when they were down double digits for the majority of the first and second halves. In the middle 20 minutes of the game, Carolina went just 5-13 from the foul line, which was too much to overcome, on their way to shooting just 17-28 from the charity stripe. 

5. Zayden High Steps Up: Have to give credit to Zayden High, who provided a lift in the first half for the Tar Heels, when he scored 6 points on 3-4 shooting. Carolina has been looking for someone to step up behind Veesaar, and High has emerged as the more likely candidate to do so. 

6. Hot Seat Hubert: If you thought the seat wasn’t warm after the loss to Stanford, it most certainly is after the loss to Cal. While Carolina’s record still looks good, at 14-4, the metrics and the trends suggest this is nothing more than an average basketball team right now. They are 2-3 in the ACC, in what was considered the easier part of the schedule. They are 3-4 in Quad 1 games, with 8 more to play down the stretch. And they are 1-3 away from Chapel Hill, with 6 more road games to play in conference season. All of this is happening while Caleb Wilson is putting together the best season a UNC freshman has ever produced from a stats perspective. With UNC looking more and more like a bubble team, it appears that Hubert Davis will be coaching for his job down the stretch, something that didn’t seem realistic after a 12-1 start to the season. 

Up Next: The Tar Heels return home to host Notre Dame on Wednesday night. Tip is set for 7 PM on ESPN2.