Heel Tough Blog: VCU Preview (NCAA Tournament - First Round)

Chris Seward - AP

It’s game day for Carolina Basketball, as they open NCAA Tournament play tonight against VCU, as the Tar Heels are hoping to advance to the second round for the first time since the 2024 Big Dance. The Tar Heels enter tonight’s game having suffered back-to-back losses after a 5-1 start without Caleb Wilson, who is sidelined for the remainder of the season, after breaking his thumb in a freak injury while dunking the basketball. 

The two-game losing streak is a major reason why the Tar Heels ended up as a #6 seed in this NCAA Tournament, after entering the ACC Tournament on the #5 seed line. This is the fourth NCAA Tournament for Carolina under Hubert Davis, and their seeds have varied. Under Davis, Carolina has been an #8, #1, #11, and now a #6 seed, respectively. The biggest surprise that came out of Selection Sunday was where Carolina was sent to play their first round game, as they’ll play in Greenville, the closest location to Chapel Hill, meaning that UNC fans should be present and give them more fan support than VCU. UNC also has great history in Greenville, as that’s where their run to the 2017 national championship began, with wins over Texas Southern and Arkansas. 

Outside of St. John’s, nobody enters the tournament on a hotter run than VCU, as the Rams have won 16 of 17 after winning the A-10 tournament last weekend in Pittsburgh. To the surprise of many, it was made known by the NCAA Tournament committee that had VCU not won their conference tournament, they would not have made the tournament at all. Regardless, they enter March playing their best basketball and are a trendy upset pick of the Tar Heels. They have two double-digit scorers, led by Terrence Hill Jr., but they have seven different players who average over 7 points per game. The Rams rank inside the top 5 in the A-10 in points per game, rebounds, FG%, point differential, and blocks. When they are playing their game, they can shoot it from behind the arc as well as anyone, and they live at the foul line, two things that Carolina has to be aware of going into tonight’s game. 

Under Hubert Davis, Carolina has won at least one NCAA Tournament game in each of their previous three tips, as Hubert is a respectable 8-3 in tournament play. If they live up to their seed expectation, they should advance to Saturday’s second round. Here’s how Carolina can do just that: 

1. March Intensity: After Carolina lost to Clemson in the ACC Tournament, Hubert Davis and the players voiced their frustration with the guys not meeting the moment, as the intensity level is different this time of the year, as compared to November, December, January, and February. The first step to advancing in the NCAA Tournament, is meeting the moment, and being ready to compete for 40 minutes once the ball is tipped at 6:50. Leading up to the game, we’ve been told about the vocal leadership provided by the two best players in uniform, Seth Trimble, and Henri Veesaar, both of whom could be playing in their final game as Tar Heels. That leadership needs to carry over onto the court because all of that talk, without action, is just wasted air. 

2. Compete on the Glass Carolina has earned big wins over the likes of Duke and Virginia, but was outrebounded in those decisions. According to the UNC standard, this Carolina team doesn’t measure up, and it has haunted them all year long. On paper, UNC is the better rebounding team, but that doesn’t mean that they are a better rebounding team. VCU is going to crash the offensive glass, a weakness for this particular UNC team this season. Henri Veesaar is coming off a 17-rebound game, but there’s no guarantee that carries over into the NCAA Tournament. As Hubert Davis always stresses, this needs to be a UNC rebounding game, so all 5 players on the court need to contribute on the offensive and defensive glass. 

3. Special Teams: The secondary areas of the game need to be executed at the highest level possible in the game. Carolina can’t afford to give the ball away against the pressure they’ll see from the Rams, and they can’t leave points at the foul line. Those two areas have hurt Carolina in their losses to Duke and Clemson, and without Wilson, their margin for error isn’t as big as it once was. 

UNC in the NCAA Tournament:

• This is Carolina’s 55th trip to the NCAA Tournament, and they lead college basketball in NCAA Tournament wins (134) and trips to the Final Four (21). In the first round, Carolina is 33-3, but two of those losses have come since 2021. UNC is 3-3 as a #6 seed, having won each of its previous first-round matchups before falling in the second round. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 30th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 121.3 (32nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (37th) 

• VCU - 44th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.9 (45) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (60th) 

TV Info:

• Tonight’s game will tip at 6:50 on TNT. 

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