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Heel Tough Blog: Virginia Preview

@UNCMBBStats
@UNCMBBStats

After blowing out Notre Dame at home on Wednesday, the Tar Heels are on the road today, as they are set to take on #14 Virginia in a top-25 matchup. The win over Notre Dame snapped a two-game losing streak and got Carolina back to .500 in the ACC. Now the challenge is to take that level of play on the road, where the Tar Heels are just 1-3 so far this season, if they have any hopes of getting back into the ACC regular season race. 


Ryan Odom has done as good a job as any coach transforming his program in his first season on the job, as he has the Cavaliers ranked inside the top-15, and legitimate contenders in the ACC. Virginia is 16-2, and is 5-1 in the ACC, including being 4-2 in Quad 1 games. They are one of the highest scoring teams in the ACC and in the country, as they feature three players who average double figures in scoring. Thijs De Ridder leads Virginia in scoring, averaging 16.1 points per game, while shooting 53% from the field and 39% from behind the arc. Overall, they have six different players who average at least 8 points per game. As a team, Virginia shoots 37% from behind the arc, and in ACC play, they are making 10.7 threes per game. In addition to their ability to score the basketball, UVA leads the ACC in rebounding (41.7) and blocks (6.4). 


After a strong start to the season in non-conference play, the belief was that UNC would be playing for NCAA Tournament seeding during ACC play. While Carolina isn’t on the NCAA Tournament bubble, they aren’t in the position they thought they’d be, as bracket projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament begin to populate. A big reason why you see UNC generally on the 7-seed line is their struggles in Quad 1 games, where they are 3-4, with back-to-back losses last week on the West Coast. The Tar Heels still have a number of Quad 1 games left to play, including today, but if they are wanting to get in a better NCAA Tournament position, they need to start winning games like today more often. 


The last time Carolina played at Virginia, they won, snapping a long losing streak in Charlottesville. With the reduced number of conference games, the two teams will only meet once this year, meaning there’s no return date in Chapel Hill. Here’s how Carolina can secure their most significant win on the road so far this season, and get back in the hunt to compete for an ACC regular-season title: 


  1. Defend the 3: In the win over Notre Dame on Wednesday, the Irish shot 50% from behind the arc in the first half, going 6-12. In the second half, they shot just 2/13 from deep, to finish the game shooting 32% from deep. That was the fewest made threes UNC has allowed in an ACC game so far this season, along with the worst shooting percentage. If they can replicate that type of defensive effort, it’ll go a long way for them to be competitive on the road in a hostile environment. With the shift in mindset within the UVA program, virtually every lineup on the floor will feature 5 guys who can all step out behind the three-point line. That means Carolina needs to be tight with their switches, communicate defensively, and not play too far back in drop coverage. 

  2. Compete on the Glass: It’s been a long time since you talked about Virginia being a dominant rebounding team, but that’s the case, as they lead the ACC in rebounding entering today’s game. The Tar Heels have two dominant rebounders in Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, but they will need a third rebounder to impact the game in a positive way. Rebounding in today’s game will determine the pace of the game that they play at, and believe it or not, UVA might want to play faster than UNC, who is playing at its slowest pace since the Bill Guthridge days. In the win over Notre Dame, they did allow 18 offensive rebounds, which can’t happen in today’s game, with UVA’s ability to shoot the ball from the outside. 

  3. Free Throws: It’s hard to believe that, going back to the win at Kentucky, Carolina has shot 70% or worse from the foul line. In the back-to-back losses last week at Stanford and California, UNC went just 37-60 from the foul line. Hubert Davis expressed on his radio show on Monday how detrimental this has become for the team, especially when they miss the front end of one-and-ones. If there’s a weakness that exists on this Virginia team, it's their inability at times to defend without fouling, which means Carolina needs to be tough enough to make their freebies, to give themselves a chance to win on the road. 

Series History: 

  • Carolina is 136-62 all-time against Virginia, including being 45-38 in Charlottesville, but they are 5-8 in John Paul Jones Arena. 

KenPom:

  • North Carolina - 33rd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.9 (27th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (54th) 

  • Virginia - 13th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 124.8 (17th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.7 (17th) 

NET:

  • North Carolina - 27th. 

  • Virginia - 13th. 

TV Info: 

  • Today’s game will tip at 12 PM on ESPN2. 

The Four Corners Podcast:


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