Heel Tough Blog: Duke Preview

@UNCMBB

As the second half of the ACC season is set to begin, it does with the first of two matchups between North Carolina and Duke, as the greatest rivalry in sports is ready to write another chapter in a legendary story. The Tar Heels enter tonight’s matchup riding a four-game winning streak after a win over Syracuse earlier this week, giving Carolina a respectable 18-4 record, including being 6-3 in the ACC. But Duke enters as the team with the better record, as the Blue Devils are 21-1, including being undefeated 10-0 in the ACC, after a win over Boston College at home earlier this week. Both teams are ranked for the 88th time in the history of the rivalry, which is 47 more than the next closest matchup. In the previous 87 contests, Carolina is 44–43, and they’ll look to improve upon that record later tonight. 

Duke may not have Cooper Flagg or Kon Knueppel on this year’s roster, but this team is every bit as good as last year, and it is capable of winning a national championship. They are led by freshman Cameron Boozer, who has emerged as arguably the best player in the ACC and in college basketball, although Caleb Wilson will certainly challenge that belief. Boozer leads Duke in scoring (23.3), rebounding (9.9), and assists (4.0), among other various stats. He has help in the form of Isaiah Evans, who is their best perimeter shooter, on a team that struggles to shoot the ball from the outside. To show you how dominant this Duke team is, they are in the top 5 in the ACC in points per game, points per game allowed, rebounding, field goal percentage, and point differential. 

Hubert Davis has spent all week trying to downplay this game, but there’s no running from how big and important this game is for his team, and for him individually. Last year, Carolina lost all three games to Duke, which quickly gave Hubert a losing record against the Blue Devils, and he’s been swept twice in three years by Jon Scheyer. As for the team, they find themselves on the outside looking in for the top four in the ACC standings, and with the toughest remaining schedule in all of the ACC, they need to defend home court and stack wins when they can if they want the all-important double bye in the ACC Tournament. A loss makes a top-four finish all the more difficult to envision, and a fourth straight loss to Duke won’t do Hubert Davis any favors in terms of his job security, so you could make the argument that there’s more pressure than normal in this rivalry matchup. 

Since the calendar turned to January, the Tar Heels have boasted one of the best offenses in all of college basketball, ranking inside the top 5 according to Bart Torvik’s metrics. But this the best defensive team UNC has seen in conference play, and arguably the best defensive team they’ve seen since the Michigan State loss back on Thanksgiving. Here’s how Carolina can overcome a dominant defensive Duke team and earn their most significant win of the season: 

1. Caleb Wilson Outplays Cameron Boozer: The matchup that everyone is talking about going into tonight’s game is the one between UNC’s Caleb Wilson and Duke’s Cameron Boozer, the two best players in this game, and the two best players in the ACC. Many pundits have offered their thoughts on how they might not be matched up against one another, but given the way that both teams play through their best player, it's inevitable that they get matched up against each other when the game is being decided. Caleb Wilson knows that how he performs in this game will impact the legacy he leaves after his lone season with the program. But performing only matters if Carolina emerges victorious; a loss does nothing for his legacy. Both players lead their respective teams in scoring, rebounding, and assists. Whichever does that tonight to the fullest will give his team an early leg up on the scoreboard. 

2. Contain Isaiah Evans: Duke is 14th in the ACC in three-point shooting, but when Isaiah Evans gets hot, he can shoot it as well as anybody in the ACC and in the country. When Duke makes their threes, that’s when their ceiling elevates to national title contender, and given their defensive prowess, it really makes it tough to beat them, home or away. Seth Trimble is going to draw the assignment more than likely, and he needs to be as locked in defensively as he has been all season long. Trimble waited four years for a game like this, he needs to have his moment, one that has Tar Heel fans talking for the next decade. If Caleb Foster beats you from the outside, then you live with that, but Evans needs to be limited from the outside. 

3. Role Players Step Up: Luka Bogavac, Jonathan Powell, and Jarin Stevenson are all coming off solid games in the win over Syracuse earlier this week, and that will need to carry over into tonight’s game as well. Both teams like to play about 8-9 guys, and whichever depth players make the most plays, very well could decide the game. Hubert Davis is confident that his newcomers will be fine playing in this rivalry for the first time, and he better hope so, because Carolina needs Luka’s perimeter scoring, Stevenson’s defensive versatility, and Powell’s energy and fight. If those guys can continue to impact the game the way they have here during the four-game winning streak, it only fuels Carolina’s chances to win the game. 

Series History: 

• The Tar Heels are 145-120 all-time against Duke, including being 66-40 in Chapel Hill, but only 21-19 in the Smith Center. Hubert Davis is 4-6 against Duke. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 30th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 123.5 (19th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (55th) 

• Duke - 3rd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 126.5 (5th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 90.9 (3rd) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 27th. 

• Duke - 3rd. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will air at 6:30 PM on ESPN. 

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