Heel Tough Blog: Louisville Preview

@UNC_Basketball

After Saturday’s road win at Syracuse, it’s a quick turnaround for Carolina Basketball, as they host Louisville tonight in a pivotal matchup in the ACC. In the win on Saturday, Carolina welcomed back Henri Veesaar, who had missed the last two games, and the big man from Estonia, lead UNC with 19 points, on 9-13 shooting. He had help in the form of Seth Trimble, who scored 13 second-half points, and Luka Bogavac, who also scored in double figures, in the win over Syracuse, which improved UNC’s record to 21-6 and 9-5 in the ACC. 

It took some time, but Louisville has finally rounded into their preseason form, when they were billed as a contender to win an ACC regular season championship and make a Final Four. The Cardinals boast the highest-scoring offense in the ACC, averaging 87 points per game, and they do the majority of their damage from behind the arc. Louisville ranks inside the top five in three-point makes and attempts, while shooting the third-fewest amount of two-point field goals in all of college basketball. They have four players that average double figures in scoring, led by sensational freshman Mikel Brown Jr, who is finally healthy and is averaging 18.6 points per game. Ryan Conwell (18.3), J’Vonne Hadley (11.2), and Isaac McKneely (11.0) are the other double-digit scorers on the roster. 

At 9-5 in the ACC, the door is open for Carolina to secure a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, but they’d more than likely have to win out. The good news is that three of their final four games are in Chapel Hill, and the Tar Heels are a perfect 15-0 in the Dean Dome so far this season. They are still awaiting the return of star freshman Caleb Wilson, but they have navigated the schedule without him so far, going 2-1. How the Tar Heels finish the final two weeks of the regular season will not impact their ACC Tournament standing, but their seeding come Selection Sunday. 

Henri Veesaar was officially listed as probable in the initial availability report for tonight’s game, after scoring 19 points in the win over the Orange on Saturday afternoon. They are going to need him to produce that and more if Carolina wants to stay unbeaten at the Smith Center. 

1. Defend the 3: Outside of the loss at NC State last week, Carolina’s perimeter defense has returned to form after a disastrous start to the ACC season, specifically following the trip out west, highlighted by losses to Stanford and Cal. Now, when you average making over 11 triples per game, and you attempt over 32 threes per game, you have to accept the fact that they are going to make a couple of contested shots from the outside. But Carolina can’t let Louisville come into the Smith Center and have a field day from the outside. They need to sprint back and take away transition threes, in addition to communicating in pick and roll situations, and not leaving shooters open from the outside. How Carolina defends the three will determine if this game is close at the final media timeout, or possibly a comfortable win for the visitors. 

2. Attack Inside-Out: Whenever Louisville has lost this season, a common thread has been their inability to compete on the inside, as you would expect with a jump shooting team, they are small on the inside. Duke and SMU, both teams that have beaten Louisville, were able to beat Louisville up on the inside, and that’s exactly how Carolina should attack them tonight. With the return of Veesaar and the emergence of Zayden High, Carolina now has three bigs they can count on, even while waiting for the return of Caleb Wilson. After playing inside-out against Syracuse, which led to 52% shooting performance from the field and 38% shooting from behind the arc, that needs to be the game plan once again tonight. 

3. Limit Pick-6 Turnovers: Carolina is still on pace to average the fewest amount of turnovers per game, and that needs to show up tonight. This isn’t a Carolina roster equipped to play in the open court, given how much they rely on their bigs to produce points for them, combined with the fact that they don’t run the floor all that well. If Carolina turns it over, it ‘ll lead to layups, dunks, and transition threes, and without Caleb WIlson, it’s uncertain if Carolina has the scoring prowess to keep up with Louisville. 

Series History:

• The Tar Heels are 20-8 all-time against Louisville, with wins in 5 of the last 6 matchups. Since Louisville joined the ACC, Carolina is 11-5, including 6-1 in Chapel Hill, with 5 straight wins. 

KenPom: 

• North Carolina - 30th overall, Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.1 (31st) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101. (38th) 

• Louisville - 15th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 125.3 (13th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 98.8 (28th) 

NET: 

• North Carolina - 27th. 

• Louisville - 13th. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will tip at 7 PM on ESPN as part of their Big Monday coverage. 

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