Heel Tough Blog: NCAA Tournament Check In - January

It’s the final week of January, and we’re just seven Sundays away from the 2026 NCAA Tournament field being selected, and that means that projections for the Big Dance are starting to heat up. In just about every game moving forward, you’re going to hear something or see a graphic from that specific network about their bracketology projections, so if you’re not ready to see Joe Lunardi on your TV screen, you might want to start preparing.

The Tar Heels are enjoying their last break in the schedule, where they don’t have a midweek game, and starting Saturday, they’ll play 11 games over the final five and a half weeks, with plenty of games in the first two quadrants still to be played. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the four best publications are currently projecting for the Tar Heels’ NCAA Tournament outlook: 

• ESPN: 

  • As of January 27th, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC projected as a #6 seed, in the Midwest Region, with a projected First Round matchup against mid-major darling, and currently undefeated, Miami (OH). According to Lunardi’s bracket, Michigan would be the #1 seed in the Midwest, which is no surprise, as there’s a case to be made that the Wolverines are the best team in all of college basketball. When it comes to Carolina’s opening round contest, Lunardi has Carolina slated to play in Greenville, which is where UNC played its first two rounds back in 2017, on their way to the national championship.   

• Fox Sports:

  • If Joe Lunardi’s name is synonymous with NCAA Tournament bracket projections, so is Mike Decoury from Fox Sports, and he has a different projection for Carolina. Decourcy, who last updated his bracket on Tuesday, currently has UNC as a #4 seed in the West Region, with a projected opening round matchup with North Dakota State. Arizona is the projected #1 seed in the West according to Decourcy, with a potential matchup with Arkansas in the Second Round. 

• CBS Sports:

  • Another big name in the bracketology game is Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, who has the most recent bracket projections of the four we’re telling you about, having updated his bracket on Wednesday. Like Lunardi, Palm has Carolina as a #6 seed, but this time in the East Region, with a projected First Round matchup with Tulsa. What makes Palm’s bracket interesting is that he has UNC in the same pod as Duke, who is his #1 seed, meaning Carolina could see their arch rival in the Elite Eight, if his projections are right. 

• Field of 68: 

  • Nobody does a better job of covering or promoting college basketball quite like the Field of 68, which updated their bracket on Monday, but will update it again on Friday. As of Monday, they had UNC projected as a #5 seed in the West, with a projected opening round matchup with mid-major Stephen F. Austin. 

While it’s not clear where exactly UNC would be seeded if Selection Sunday were today, it is clear that UNC is safely in the field, with room to improve its projected ranking over the final 11 games of the regular season, and in the ACC Tournament. Before last week's win at Virginia, most of these same sites had UNC on the 7 line, with some flirting with Carolina being in the 8/9 game. If Carolina can continue to add wins like that to its resume, a 2 seed isn’t out of the question, which would be their highest NCAA Tournament seeding since 2024, when they were a #1 seed. 

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