Heel Tough Blog: Wake Forest Preview

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After a week off, the Tar Heels return to action later today, as they host Wake Forest, looking to bounce back from the loss to SMU last Saturday, which dropped the team’s record to 13-2 overall, 1-1 in the ACC, and 17th in the AP Poll. The loss to SMU wasn’t expected, but so wasn’t the defensive performance in that game, as Carolina allowed a season high 97 points on 60% shooting from the field, 53% shooting from behind the arc, making it the second-worst defensive game in the KenPom era, which dates back 29 years. During his press conference yesterday, Hubert Davis made it known how happy he was to have no mid-week game, so they could practice on themselves, and clean up the defensive issues that persisted in that game, knowing that Wake Forest will challenge them later today. 

The Demon Deacons enter the game with a 10-6 record on the season, bringing with them a 1-2 record in league play, but needing to win some big games to even begin to discuss the possibility of making the NCAA Tournament. They have played one true road game, a loss at NC State, which isn’t as good as the UNC team they’ll face in the Smith Center. They have three players currently averaging double figures in scoring, led by Juke Harris, and his 19.9 points, on 45% shooting from the field, and 33% shooting from behind the arc. The one oddity of this Steve Forbes team has been their inability to make perimeter shots, as they shoot just 34% from behind the arc as a team. 

Tonight could be a milestone night for Carolina Basketball, as with a win, it would register as the 500th all-time win in the Smith Center, which opened 40 years ago later this year. Carolina’s all-time record in the Dean Dome is 499-90, and they are 258-71 in ACC games in the historic venue. With a decision looming on what to do with the arena in regards to hosting basketball games in the future, there’s a chance the arena never sees a 600th win, so tonight could be a special moment for an area that’s produced plenty of special moments over the years. 

Saturdays in the ACC are cherished by Hubert Davis, and hopefully, tonight, his team cherishes the opportunity to play basketball the way that they’ve been taught to play. While tonight isn’t a must-win game by any means, 2-1 in the ACC feels a lot different than 1-2, especially with a West Coast road trip to follow next week. Here’s how Carolina can stay perfect at home, and in the process, improve to 14-2, and 2-1 on the season: 

1. Sense of Urgency: It’s been a week since we last saw the team play basketball, and the last time they had this much time off, they sleptwalked through a win over Florida State. Now that was coming off the Christmas holiday, not after the worst performance of the season, but nonetheless, they need to come out ready to play. The 6 PM start should allow for a nice crowd to fill the arena, and hopefully bring some life and energy into the building for this team to play off of, but Wake Forest is better than Florida State is; they can’t afford to play the same way tonight that they did in that game, if they want to win. 

2. Limit Juke Harris: In the loss to SMU, Boopie Miller was the best player on the floor, and did whatever he wanted, on the way to scoring 27 points, on 10-13 shooting. Juke Harris is a different type of player, but if given the ability, he’s capable of doing the same thing and having the same impact on him. There’s no denying that Seth Trimbe is the best defender on this team, but that doesn’t mean he should guard him all of the time. With defensive, physical players like Jarin Stevenson and Jonathan Powell on the roster, including Jaydon Young, Hubert should look to wear down Harris, with multiple defenders who are fresher than he is. 

3. Establish Inside Scoring Presence: Many teams will try to copy what SMU did against Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, but the hope is that they won’t have the same success. In regard to Wake Forest, they don’t have a single player on their roster taller than 6-9, which means UNC should pound the ball inside from start to finish, and play through their two best players. After getting pushed around last week in Dallas, you know that Hubert Davis and the coaching staff challenged Wilson and Veesaar to play tougher and not be pushed off the block as easily as they did. We know how competitive both guys are, and the emotion they both play with, so we should see them play with a competitive spirit as high as any game this season. 

Series History:

• The Tar Heels are 166-70 all-time against Wake Forest, their second-most wins against a single opponent in program history. In Chapel Hill, they are 81-18, with a 26-5 mark in Chapel Hill, having won the last 9 contests in the Dean Dome. 

KenPom:

• North Carolina - 27th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 119.3 (44th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 98.5 (27th) 

• Wake Forest - 66th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 113.2 (99th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 100.7 (51st) 

NET:

• North Carolina - 22nd. 

• Wake Forest - 67th. 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will air on the ACC Network, with a tip time set for 6 PM. 

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