Heel Tough Blog: Navy Preview

Sports Illustrated

A long homestand to begin the 2025-26 season comes to a close later tonight in the Smith Center, as the #18 Tar Heels will host Navy, in their fifth straight home game to open the season. The five-game homestand is the longest to begin a season since 1918-19, and it features a historical win over Kansas a few weeks ago. The last time Carolina took the floor, they blew out North Carolina Central, 97-53, securing their second 40-point win this season. After tonight’s home game, Carolina won’t play again in Chapel Hill until December 7th, when they’ll host the Georgetown Hoyas. 

Unlike some of the other mid-major programs that have visited the Dean Dome this year, Navy enters with expectations for the 2025-26 season, as they were the preseason pick to win the Patriot League, after a dominant stretch from Colgate here recently. Navy brings with them a 2-2 record early on this season, but they have four players who average double figures in scoring, including each double-digit scorer, averaging over 12 points per game, led by Jinwoo Kim, and his 15.5 points per game. The Midshipmen’s offense has been efficient and explosive early on this season, averaging 78.0 points per game, while shooting 51% from the field. Three of their four double-digit scorers shoot 48% or better from the field. 

The Tar Heels enter their second week without Seth Trimble, who continues to rehab from a broken forearm, suffered in a freak accident in the weight room. That has forced Luka Bogavac into the starting lineup, after coming off the bench the first two games, but he has started to find his rhythm, averaging over 11 points per game, despite shooting under 30% from behind the arc. Bogavac isn’t the only one struggling from the outside, but in the win over NCCU, Carolina put together their best shooting performance of the season, going 11-29, and they hope that carries over into tonight’s game. 

There’s no denying that Carolina set out to schedule a lot more differently this year, as opposed to last year, when they played a ranked team virtually every time on the floor. But tonight, they will be tested for the first time since the Kansas game, as Navy is experienced and has multiple different scorers capable of putting the ball in the basket, all while being the favorite to win their league. Here’s what to watch for during tonight’s home contest: 

1. Dominate the Glass: In every game that Carolina has played so far, they’ve been able to overwhelm the opponent on the glass, with their size, length, and athleticism, and that should continue into tonight’s game. On paper, Carolina has a plas-13.5 advantage on the boards, as they average 47.5 rebounds per contest, and Navy averages just 34.0. The front court is paced by the two bigs, who are combining to average 36 points, and 17 rebounds per contest. Unlike the 1980s, Navy doesn’t feature a future Hall of Famer down low, so Carolina should be able to control the defensive glass and have no problem getting to the offensive boards either. 

2. High Level Defense: It’s early on in the season, but a calling card of this Carolina team may be their ability to consistently defend at a high level, although that will be tested tonight. This is the most potent mid-major program to visit Chapel Hill this non-conference season, and their four double-digit scorers would suggest they have the ability to put the ball in the basket more frequently than Central Arkansas, North Carolina Central, and Radford. Entering tonight’s game, Carolina ranks 8th in field goal percentage against (33%), 9th in two-point field goals allowed (13.0), and fifth in two-point field goal percentage (35%). It’s unlikely those numbers will stay there as the season moves along, but the more that Carolina continues to buy in on that end of the floor, the higher their overall ceiling as a team becomes. 

3. Challenge Their Depth: Navy does have eight players that average double-figure minutes, but they’ve yet to play against a team as deep, talented, and versatile as Carolina. Carolina is averaging attempting 30 foul shots per contest, which means they get into the bonus early and often, forcing the opposition to get into their bench sooner than they probably want to, and that needs to be a way in which Carolina asserts itself tonight. 

Series History:

• This probably caught you by surprise as it did me, but Carolina is 6-14 all-time against the Naval Academy, despite only playing once since 1959. Furthermore, this is the second-ever meeting in Chapel Hill, with the first coming back in 1936, a 39-25 UNC win. The .300 winning percentage against Navy is the lowest against a single opponent that Carolina has played at least 20 times. 15 of the 20 overall matchups have been played in Annapolis. 

KenPom: 

• North Carolina - 23rd overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.2 (25th) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 97.9 (27th) 

• Navy - 174th overall. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.7 (192nd) Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (179th) 

TV Info: 

• Tonight’s game will be televised on the ACC Network, starting at 7 PM. 

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